US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure—including recent hits on Isfahan bases, a Tehran-area bridge, and petrochemical sites—persist into week six of the conflict sparked by surprise attacks on February 28, 2026, fueling trader skepticism on imminent de-escalation. President Trump's April 2 Oval Office remarks projected a 2-3 week US withdrawal timeline contingent on neutralizing Iran's nuclear program, following Iran's downing of a US F-15 fighter jet over western Iran on April 3 and ongoing missile barrages. Absent ceasefire talks or UN mediation, Gulf state diplomacy and proxy actions by Iranian allies like the Houthis remain key variables ahead of potential late-April shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$79,351 交易量
2026-04-30
April 5
1%
April 6
<1%
April 7
2%
April 8
4%
April 9
3%
April 10
5%
April 11
5%
April 12
6%
April 13
7%
April 14
8%
April 15
9%
April 16
36%
April 17
43%
April 18
42%
April 19
45%
April 20
44%
April 21
43%
April 22
43%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
29%
April 26
44%
April 27
45%
April 28
44%
April 29
47%
April 30
27%
$79,351 交易量
April 5
$2,161 交易量
1%
April 6
$6,943 交易量
<1%
April 7
$921 交易量
2%
April 8
$237 交易量
4%
April 9
$2,904 交易量
3%
April 10
$20 交易量
5%
April 11
$16 交易量
5%
April 12
$7 交易量
6%
April 13
$0 交易量
7%
April 14
$4,755 交易量
8%
April 15
$180 交易量
9%
April 16
$0 交易量
36%
April 17
$0 交易量
43%
April 18
$54 交易量
42%
April 19
$1 交易量
45%
April 20
$0 交易量
44%
April 21
$0 交易量
43%
April 22
$0 交易量
43%
April 23
$0 交易量
44%
April 24
$0 交易量
44%
April 25
$2,777 交易量
29%
April 26
$0 交易量
44%
April 27
$39 交易量
45%
April 28
$0 交易量
44%
April 29
$1 交易量
47%
April 30
$23,196 交易量
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure—including recent hits on Isfahan bases, a Tehran-area bridge, and petrochemical sites—persist into week six of the conflict sparked by surprise attacks on February 28, 2026, fueling trader skepticism on imminent de-escalation. President Trump's April 2 Oval Office remarks projected a 2-3 week US withdrawal timeline contingent on neutralizing Iran's nuclear program, following Iran's downing of a US F-15 fighter jet over western Iran on April 3 and ongoing missile barrages. Absent ceasefire talks or UN mediation, Gulf state diplomacy and proxy actions by Iranian allies like the Houthis remain key variables ahead of potential late-April shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$79,351結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure—including recent hits on Isfahan bases, a Tehran-area bridge, and petrochemical sites—persist into week six of the conflict sparked by surprise attacks on February 28, 2026, fueling trader skepticism on imminent de-escalation. President Trump's April 2 Oval Office remarks projected a 2-3 week US withdrawal timeline contingent on neutralizing Iran's nuclear program, following Iran's downing of a US F-15 fighter jet over western Iran on April 3 and ongoing missile barrages. Absent ceasefire talks or UN mediation, Gulf state diplomacy and proxy actions by Iranian allies like the Houthis remain key variables ahead of potential late-April shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$79,351結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure—including recent hits on Isfahan bases, a Tehran-area bridge, and petrochemical sites—persist into week six of the conflict sparked by surprise attacks on February 28, 2026, fueling trader skepticism on imminent de-escalation. President Trump's April 2 Oval Office remarks projected a 2-3 week US withdrawal timeline contingent on neutralizing Iran's nuclear program, following Iran's downing of a US F-15 fighter jet over western Iran on April 3 and ongoing missile barrages. Absent ceasefire talks or UN mediation, Gulf state diplomacy and proxy actions by Iranian allies like the Houthis remain key variables ahead of potential late-April shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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