Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (71.7%), reflecting a surge of well-funded progressive and younger challengers targeting around 30 vulnerable incumbents amid generational tensions and post-2024 party reckoning. Early March 3 primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas highlighted incumbent shakiness, with close races and state-level Democratic upsets—like three North Carolina House losses—signaling potential federal spillovers, though no major U.S. House defeats confirmed yet. Ongoing primaries through summer in California, New York, and other states, where fundraising by challengers rivals incumbents, could push the total into this range, aligning with historical midterm primary loss rates of 2-5 per party while accounting for elevated intra-party competition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4-6 72.5%
13-15 48.3%
7-9 24%
少於3人 21%
最新
最新
少於3人
21%
4-6
73%
7-9
24%
10-12
47%
13-15
48%
>15
3%
4-6 72.5%
13-15 48.3%
7-9 24%
少於3人 21%
最新
最新
少於3人
$0 交易量
21%
4-6
$0 交易量
73%
7-9
$0 交易量
24%
10-12
$0 交易量
47%
13-15
$229 交易量
48%
>15
$0 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (71.7%), reflecting a surge of well-funded progressive and younger challengers targeting around 30 vulnerable incumbents amid generational tensions and post-2024 party reckoning. Early March 3 primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas highlighted incumbent shakiness, with close races and state-level Democratic upsets—like three North Carolina House losses—signaling potential federal spillovers, though no major U.S. House defeats confirmed yet. Ongoing primaries through summer in California, New York, and other states, where fundraising by challengers rivals incumbents, could push the total into this range, aligning with historical midterm primary loss rates of 2-5 per party while accounting for elevated intra-party competition.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
交易量
$229市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (71.7%), reflecting a surge of well-funded progressive and younger challengers targeting around 30 vulnerable incumbents amid generational tensions and post-2024 party reckoning. Early March 3 primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas highlighted incumbent shakiness, with close races and state-level Democratic upsets—like three North Carolina House losses—signaling potential federal spillovers, though no major U.S. House defeats confirmed yet. Ongoing primaries through summer in California, New York, and other states, where fundraising by challengers rivals incumbents, could push the total into this range, aligning with historical midterm primary loss rates of 2-5 per party while accounting for elevated intra-party competition.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$229市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries (71.7%), reflecting a surge of well-funded progressive and younger challengers targeting around 30 vulnerable incumbents amid generational tensions and post-2024 party reckoning. Early March 3 primaries in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas highlighted incumbent shakiness, with close races and state-level Democratic upsets—like three North Carolina House losses—signaling potential federal spillovers, though no major U.S. House defeats confirmed yet. Ongoing primaries through summer in California, New York, and other states, where fundraising by challengers rivals incumbents, could push the total into this range, aligning with historical midterm primary loss rates of 2-5 per party while accounting for elevated intra-party competition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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