Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among bins around 1240-1439 tweets for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, with no outcome exceeding 9.6% implied probability, signaling high uncertainty despite March's resolution to 1320-1359 posts—averaging roughly 43 daily amid intense political commentary, Tesla updates, and SpaceX buzz. This clustering mirrors his sustained high-volume posting as X's owner and pop culture provocateur, fueled by viral engagement on DOGE initiatives and AI developments, but variability arises from unpredictable spikes during news cycles or lulls from executive travel. Key differentiators include potential Starship test outcomes or Trump administration crossovers, with early April sub-markets like April 2-4 favoring 65-89 posts as baselines; traders eye daily trackers for momentum shifts before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於1320-1359 9.8%
1240-1279 8.8%
1280-1319 8.5%
1360-1399 8.0%
$4,516,918 交易量
$4,516,918 交易量
少於20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
3%
920-959
2%
960-999
4%
1000-1039
7%
1040-1079
7%
1080-1119
5%
1120-1159
4%
1160-1199
6%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
9%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
10%
1360-1399
8%
1400-1439
7%
1440-1479
6%
1480-1519
5%
1520-1559
3%
1560-1599
3%
1600-1679
2%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
1%
2000條以上
1%
1320-1359 9.8%
1240-1279 8.8%
1280-1319 8.5%
1360-1399 8.0%
$4,516,918 交易量
$4,516,918 交易量
少於20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
3%
920-959
2%
960-999
4%
1000-1039
7%
1040-1079
7%
1080-1119
5%
1120-1159
4%
1160-1199
6%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
9%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
10%
1360-1399
8%
1400-1439
7%
1440-1479
6%
1480-1519
5%
1520-1559
3%
1560-1599
3%
1600-1679
2%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
1%
2000條以上
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among bins around 1240-1439 tweets for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, with no outcome exceeding 9.6% implied probability, signaling high uncertainty despite March's resolution to 1320-1359 posts—averaging roughly 43 daily amid intense political commentary, Tesla updates, and SpaceX buzz. This clustering mirrors his sustained high-volume posting as X's owner and pop culture provocateur, fueled by viral engagement on DOGE initiatives and AI developments, but variability arises from unpredictable spikes during news cycles or lulls from executive travel. Key differentiators include potential Starship test outcomes or Trump administration crossovers, with early April sub-markets like April 2-4 favoring 65-89 posts as baselines; traders eye daily trackers for momentum shifts before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions