Market icon
政治·奇巧

在4月5日之前，有沒有找到被盜的KitKats ？

Market icon
政治·奇巧

在4月5日之前，有沒有找到被盜的KitKats ？

是

23% 機率
Polymarket
最新

$19,433 交易量

是

23% 機率
Polymarket
最新

$19,433 交易量

Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count. The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Nestlé confirmed on March 28 that thieves hijacked a truck carrying 12 tons (413,793 bars) of Formula One-branded KitKats en route from Italy to Poland, with no injuries reported but the vehicle and cargo still missing. Italian and Polish authorities launched a joint search, noting the bars' unique batch codes for traceability, yet no recoveries or suspect arrests have occurred in the ensuing days amid fears of black market flooding ahead of Easter. This lack of progress over the past 72 hours, against the tight April 5 deadline and logistical hurdles of dispersing such volume quickly, underpins trader consensus implying 77.5% odds none will be recovered.

Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count.

The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,433
結束日期
2026-04-05
市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 11:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count. The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count. The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Nestlé confirmed on March 28 that thieves hijacked a truck carrying 12 tons (413,793 bars) of Formula One-branded KitKats en route from Italy to Poland, with no injuries reported but the vehicle and cargo still missing. Italian and Polish authorities launched a joint search, noting the bars' unique batch codes for traceability, yet no recoveries or suspect arrests have occurred in the ensuing days amid fears of black market flooding ahead of Easter. This lack of progress over the past 72 hours, against the tight April 5 deadline and logistical hurdles of dispersing such volume quickly, underpins trader consensus implying 77.5% odds none will be recovered.

Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count.

The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,433
結束日期
2026-04-05
市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 11:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count. The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在4月5日之前，有沒有找到被盜的KitKats ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "截至4月5日，有追回任何被竊的奇巧巧克力嗎？" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在4月5日之前，有沒有找到被盜的KitKats ？" has generated $19.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在4月5日之前，有沒有找到被盜的KitKats ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在4月5日之前，有沒有找到被盜的KitKats ？" is "截至4月5日，有追回任何被竊的奇巧巧克力嗎？" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在4月5日之前，有沒有找到被盜的KitKats ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.