Trader consensus favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at 52.5% implied probability, closely followed by 6,000-6,500 at 39.5%, reflecting yesterday's FlightAware tally of about 5,865 delays amid similar conditions. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the ongoing government shutdown—now on day 45 with absences around 10%—continue to cause security bottlenecks and cascading delays, especially during peak spring break travel. Northeast winds are prompting FAA advisories for arrival delays at Boston (BOS), New York (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia (PHL), and Washington hubs, mirroring March 30 patterns, while no major storms have eased higher bins. Early March 31 reports show over 2,800 delays building, aligning with the typical daily average of roughly 5,600, with full FlightAware data expected to resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於6,500-7,000 44%
6,000-6,500 43%
5,500-6,000 42%
7,500-8,000 30%
$385 交易量
$385 交易量
<5,000
17%
5,000-5,500
20%
5,500-6,000
42%
6,000-6,500
43%
6,500-7,000
44%
7,000-7,500
28%
7,500-8,000
30%
>8,000
25%
6,500-7,000 44%
6,000-6,500 43%
5,500-6,000 42%
7,500-8,000 30%
$385 交易量
$385 交易量
<5,000
17%
5,000-5,500
20%
5,500-6,000
42%
6,000-6,500
43%
6,500-7,000
44%
7,000-7,500
28%
7,500-8,000
30%
>8,000
25%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
市場開放時間: Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Trader consensus favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at 52.5% implied probability, closely followed by 6,000-6,500 at 39.5%, reflecting yesterday's FlightAware tally of about 5,865 delays amid similar conditions. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the ongoing government shutdown—now on day 45 with absences around 10%—continue to cause security bottlenecks and cascading delays, especially during peak spring break travel. Northeast winds are prompting FAA advisories for arrival delays at Boston (BOS), New York (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia (PHL), and Washington hubs, mirroring March 30 patterns, while no major storms have eased higher bins. Early March 31 reports show over 2,800 delays building, aligning with the typical daily average of roughly 5,600, with full FlightAware data expected to resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions