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選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

Market icon
選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.3%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.8%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.5%

Polymarket

$927,107,461 交易量

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.3%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.8%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.5%

Polymarket

$927,107,461 交易量

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加文·紐森

$16,075,004 交易量

24%

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亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯

$6,037,278 交易量

8%

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喬恩·奧索夫

$5,732,340 交易量

6%

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卡馬拉·哈里斯

$8,570,678 交易量

4%

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皮特·布塔朱吉

$9,337,242 交易量

4%

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喬什·夏皮羅

$5,768,832 交易量

4%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$3,387,484 交易量

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,532,443 交易量

2%

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喬恩·斯圖爾特

$9,638,250 交易量

2%

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馬克·凱利

$10,797,273 交易量

2%

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安迪·貝希爾

$5,984,306 交易量

2%

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魯本·加列戈

$3,494,299 交易量

2%

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韋斯·摩爾

$13,398,213 交易量

2%

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羅·卡納

$4,112,585 交易量

2%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,042,118 交易量

1%

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歐普拉·溫芙蕾

$42,714,980 交易量

1%

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米歇爾·奧巴馬

$21,305,331 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$20,488,498 交易量

1%

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拉姆·伊曼紐爾

$10,967,113 交易量

1%

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馬克·庫班

$17,448,470 交易量

1%

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史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$13,536,798 交易量

1%

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巨石強森

$8,571,500 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,315,913 交易量

1%

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約翰·費特曼

$16,652,423 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$38,288,871 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$27,121,469 交易量

1%

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莉茲·切尼

$31,948,193 交易量

1%

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佐赫蘭·曼達尼

$32,866,798 交易量

1%

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MrBeast

$35,029,564 交易量

1%

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羅伊·庫珀

$24,516,257 交易量

1%

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喬治·克魯尼

$36,914,524 交易量

1%

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金·卡戴珊

$32,619,371 交易量

1%

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賈里德·波利斯

$19,109,571 交易量

1%

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切爾西·克林頓

$44,271,029 交易量

1%

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希拉蕊·柯林頓

$37,216,527 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·歐巴馬

$25,024,760 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·瓦爾茲

$36,342,837 交易量

1%

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貝托·奧羅克

$30,873,854 交易量

1%

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安德魯·楊

$41,809,917 交易量

1%

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菲爾·墨菲

$33,290,961 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$31,252,930 交易量

1%

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賈思敏·克羅克特

$22,207,051 交易量

1%

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拉斐爾·沃諾克

$24,096,319 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$38,419,464 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field following Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat, driven by his strong showings in recent polls—including tying for second among Democrats in a New Hampshire primary survey released yesterday and leading California Democrats in a poll from earlier this week—alongside his national fundraising edge and debate visibility. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% buoyed by progressive youth appeal and social media momentum, while Jon Ossoff at 6% benefits from swing-state incumbency as a Georgia senator. Differentiation hinges on executive experience (Newsom), ideological purity (Ocasio-Cortez), and battleground viability (Ossoff); consolidation could stem from 2026 midterm results, early fundraising hauls, party endorsements, or scandals, with Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary looming in early 2028 to test viability amid high uncertainty.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field following Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat, driven by his strong showings in recent polls—including tying for second among Democrats in a New Hampshire primary survey released yesterday and leading California Democrats in a poll from earlier this week—alongside his national fundraising edge and debate visibility. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% buoyed by progressive youth appeal and social media momentum, while Jon Ossoff at 6% benefits from swing-state incumbency as a Georgia senator. Differentiation hinges on executive experience (Newsom), ideological purity (Ocasio-Cortez), and battleground viability (Ossoff); consolidation could stem from 2026 midterm results, early fundraising hauls, party endorsements, or scandals, with Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary looming in early 2028 to test viability amid high uncertainty.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field following Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat, driven by his strong showings in recent polls—including tying for second among Democrats in a New Hampshire primary survey released yesterday and leading California Democrats in a poll from earlier this week—alongside his national fundraising edge and debate visibility. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% buoyed by progressive youth appeal and social media momentum, while Jon Ossoff at 6% benefits from swing-state incumbency as a Georgia senator. Differentiation hinges on executive experience (Newsom), ideological purity (Ocasio-Cortez), and battleground viability (Ossoff); consolidation could stem from 2026 midterm results, early fundraising hauls, party endorsements, or scandals, with Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary looming in early 2028 to test viability amid high uncertainty.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field following Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat, driven by his strong showings in recent polls—including tying for second among Democrats in a New Hampshire primary survey released yesterday and leading California Democrats in a poll from earlier this week—alongside his national fundraising edge and debate visibility. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% buoyed by progressive youth appeal and social media momentum, while Jon Ossoff at 6% benefits from swing-state incumbency as a Georgia senator. Differentiation hinges on executive experience (Newsom), ideological purity (Ocasio-Cortez), and battleground viability (Ossoff); consolidation could stem from 2026 midterm results, early fundraising hauls, party endorsements, or scandals, with Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary looming in early 2028 to test viability amid high uncertainty.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2028年民主黨總統提名人" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加文·紐森" at 24%, followed by "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2028年民主黨總統提名人" has generated $927.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2028年民主黨總統提名人," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" is "加文·紐森" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.