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選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

Market icon
選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

加文·紐森 24.7%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.0%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.3%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.0%

Polymarket

$957,841,621 交易量

加文·紐森 24.7%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.0%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.3%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.0%

Polymarket

$957,841,621 交易量

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加文·紐森

$17,537,651 交易量

25%

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亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯

$6,451,278 交易量

8%

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喬恩·奧索夫

$6,267,918 交易量

5%

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卡馬拉·哈里斯

$9,002,551 交易量

4%

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喬什·夏皮羅

$6,012,281 交易量

4%

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皮特·布塔朱吉

$9,624,565 交易量

4%

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安迪·貝希爾

$6,640,780 交易量

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,343,062 交易量

2%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$4,857,235 交易量

2%

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喬恩·斯圖爾特

$10,814,371 交易量

2%

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馬克·凱利

$11,627,446 交易量

2%

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魯本·加列戈

$3,714,494 交易量

2%

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韋斯·摩爾

$13,674,723 交易量

2%

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羅·卡納

$4,936,577 交易量

2%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,319,914 交易量

2%

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米歇爾·奧巴馬

$21,971,828 交易量

1%

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史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$14,188,328 交易量

1%

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歐普拉·溫芙蕾

$43,409,678 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$21,484,908 交易量

1%

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拉姆·伊曼紐爾

$11,238,661 交易量

1%

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馬克·庫班

$17,945,820 交易量

1%

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巨石強森

$8,877,454 交易量

1%

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約翰·費特曼

$17,116,500 交易量

1%

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佐赫蘭·曼達尼

$33,209,253 交易量

1%

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切爾西·克林頓

$44,780,791 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,483,886 交易量

1%

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羅伊·庫珀

$25,336,809 交易量

1%

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喬治·克魯尼

$37,559,392 交易量

1%

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莉茲·切尼

$33,447,084 交易量

1%

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安德魯·楊

$42,892,574 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$38,863,653 交易量

1%

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MrBeast

$35,524,955 交易量

1%

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希拉蕊·柯林頓

$37,779,618 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$27,712,301 交易量

1%

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拉斐爾·沃諾克

$25,554,115 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·歐巴馬

$26,329,648 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·瓦爾茲

$36,832,553 交易量

1%

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金·卡戴珊

$33,404,000 交易量

1%

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賈里德·波利斯

$19,699,642 交易量

1%

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菲爾·墨菲

$33,727,059 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$31,718,706 交易量

1%

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賈思敏·克羅克特

$23,208,503 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$39,420,348 交易量

1%

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貝托·奧羅克

$32,305,660 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.7% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 POLITICO poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state primary and his March 15 South by Southwest remarks hinting at a run amid national book tours critiquing President Trump. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.0% buoyed by progressive appeal and youth voter polls, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects his Georgia Senate battleground success and electability buzz; Harris lingers at 4.0% despite recent Southern fundraising amid 2024 loss scrutiny. Differentiators include governors' executive experience, senators' swing-state wins, and ideological lanes, with 2026 midterms, early-state polling, and donor endorsements poised to consolidate the wide-open field.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$957,841,621
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.7% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by a March 12 POLITICO poll showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in their home-state primary and his March 15 South by Southwest remarks hinting at a run amid national book tours critiquing President Trump. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.0% buoyed by progressive appeal and youth voter polls, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects his Georgia Senate battleground success and electability buzz; Harris lingers at 4.0% despite recent Southern fundraising amid 2024 loss scrutiny. Differentiators include governors' executive experience, senators' swing-state wins, and ideological lanes, with 2026 midterms, early-state polling, and donor endorsements poised to consolidate the wide-open field.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$957,841,621
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2028年民主黨總統提名人" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加文·紐森" at 25%, followed by "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2028年民主黨總統提名人" has generated $957.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2028年民主黨總統提名人," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" is "加文·紐森" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.