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地緣政治·特朗普

馬杜羅的妻子西莉亞·弗洛雷斯由… ？

Market icon
地緣政治·特朗普

馬杜羅的妻子西莉亞·弗洛雷斯由… ？

$1,166,467 交易量

2026-01-31
Polymarket

$1,166,467 交易量

Polymarket

12月31日

$119,865 交易量

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Cilia Flores, wife of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and a key Chavista figure, remains in U.S. custody at a Brooklyn detention center following her January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces in Caracas amid narco-trafficking indictments. Recent March 26–29 federal court hearings in New York before Judge Alvin Hellerstein saw her defense challenge sanctions blocking funding from Venezuela, with the judge refusing dismissal but approving a medical evaluation for her reported heart condition and injuries; no bail has been requested. Traders assess release probabilities based on procedural motions, potential plea negotiations, diplomatic pressures from Venezuelan allies, or extradition scenarios, with the case's strength bolstered by DEA evidence of her alleged role in shielding cartels. Upcoming hearings could address bail or funding, amid ongoing U.S.-Venezuela tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,166,467
結束日期
2026-01-31
市場開放時間
Jan 3, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Cilia Flores, wife of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and a key Chavista figure, remains in U.S. custody at a Brooklyn detention center following her January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces in Caracas amid narco-trafficking indictments. Recent March 26–29 federal court hearings in New York before Judge Alvin Hellerstein saw her defense challenge sanctions blocking funding from Venezuela, with the judge refusing dismissal but approving a medical evaluation for her reported heart condition and injuries; no bail has been requested. Traders assess release probabilities based on procedural motions, potential plea negotiations, diplomatic pressures from Venezuelan allies, or extradition scenarios, with the case's strength bolstered by DEA evidence of her alleged role in shielding cartels. Upcoming hearings could address bail or funding, amid ongoing U.S.-Venezuela tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,166,467
結束日期
2026-01-31
市場開放時間
Jan 3, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"馬杜羅的妻子西莉亞·弗洛雷斯由… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 6%, followed by "1月9日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "馬杜羅的妻子西莉亞·弗洛雷斯由… ？" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "馬杜羅的妻子西莉亞·弗洛雷斯由… ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "馬杜羅的妻子西莉亞·弗洛雷斯由… ？" is "12月31日" at just 6%, with "1月9日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "馬杜羅的妻子西莉亞·弗洛雷斯由… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.