Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, fueled by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 73% 2024 general election victory, and dominant fundraising with over $545,000 raised versus minimal challengers' totals. Race forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rate it Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting heavy Democratic voter registration in this Bay Area seat. Primary rivals include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, independent Jim Garrity, and Republican Charles Hoelter, but none pose a credible threat. Trader consensus implies 95.5% odds of a Democratic winner, with upset scenarios limited to a major Mullin scandal, withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican wave flipping deep-blue districts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$58,569 交易量
$58,569 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
96%
共和黨
3%
$58,569 交易量
$58,569 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$48,293 交易量
96%
共和黨
$10,276 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, fueled by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 73% 2024 general election victory, and dominant fundraising with over $545,000 raised versus minimal challengers' totals. Race forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rate it Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting heavy Democratic voter registration in this Bay Area seat. Primary rivals include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, independent Jim Garrity, and Republican Charles Hoelter, but none pose a credible threat. Trader consensus implies 95.5% odds of a Democratic winner, with upset scenarios limited to a major Mullin scandal, withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican wave flipping deep-blue districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$58,569結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, fueled by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 73% 2024 general election victory, and dominant fundraising with over $545,000 raised versus minimal challengers' totals. Race forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rate it Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting heavy Democratic voter registration in this Bay Area seat. Primary rivals include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, independent Jim Garrity, and Republican Charles Hoelter, but none pose a credible threat. Trader consensus implies 95.5% odds of a Democratic winner, with upset scenarios limited to a major Mullin scandal, withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican wave flipping deep-blue districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$58,569結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, fueled by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 73% 2024 general election victory, and dominant fundraising with over $545,000 raised versus minimal challengers' totals. Race forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rate it Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting heavy Democratic voter registration in this Bay Area seat. Primary rivals include Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar, independent Jim Garrity, and Republican Charles Hoelter, but none pose a credible threat. Trader consensus implies 95.5% odds of a Democratic winner, with upset scenarios limited to a major Mullin scandal, withdrawal, or unprecedented national Republican wave flipping deep-blue districts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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