Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於基民盟 51%
AfD 12.7%
綠黨 11.8%
Linke 12%
$2,007,485 交易量
$2,007,485 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
51%
AfD
13%
綠黨
12%
Linke
12%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 51%
AfD 12.7%
綠黨 11.8%
Linke 12%
$2,007,485 交易量
$2,007,485 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$9,014 交易量
51%
AfD
$1,653,186 交易量
13%
綠黨
$23,086 交易量
12%
Linke
$8,237 交易量
12%
SPD
$284,944 交易量
9%
BSW
$15,579 交易量
1%
FDP
$8,318 交易量
<1%
FW
$5,121 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市場開放時間： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$2,007,485結束日期
Sep 20, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$2,007,485結束日期
Sep 20, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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