Trader consensus in the AZ-05 Republican primary heavily favors former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb at 88%, reflecting his dominant position in late 2025 polls showing 47-64% support among likely GOP primary voters, bolstered by President Trump's November endorsement in the open race to replace Rep. Andy Biggs. A December Lamb-commissioned survey had him at 64% in a multi-candidate field, with State Rep. Travis Grantham at 1.4% and ex-NFL kicker Jay Feely at 3.1%, amid 30% undecideds now pricing toward Lamb. No new polls or major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days since candidates secured ballot access via March signature filings; a minor April 2 debate no-show drew criticism but failed to shift odds. Grantham's fundraising lead ($587K raised) and Feely's celebrity sustain their low-single-digit shares, though Lamb's name recognition and base rates in safe districts position him strongly ahead of the July 21 primary.