AI泡沫破滅了… ？

Name: AI泡沫破滅了… ？
Start: 2025-11-20T00:32:22.146Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

AI泡沫破滅了… ？ — 討論

0xf135B96E6A7Df66F7Bc3A6F66EB750EECb97b072-1762325615074 · 2025-11-20T00:32:22.146Z

關於AI泡沫破滅了… ？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

科技·商務

AI泡沫破滅了… ？

$2,541,166 交易量

2026-12-31

2026年12月31日

$1,953,170 交易量

16%

$2,541,166 交易量

2026年12月31日

$1,953,170 交易量

16%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"AI泡沫破滅了… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年12月31日" at 16%, followed by "2025年12月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" has generated $2.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AI泡沫破滅了… ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" is "2026年12月31日" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2025年12月31日" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "AI泡沫破滅了… ？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $2.5 million traded on “AI泡沫破滅了… ？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "AI泡沫破滅了… ？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 16¢ for "2026年12月31日" in the "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 16% chance that "2026年12月31日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 16¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 84¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" market has an active community of 72 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "AI泡沫破滅了… ？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

AI泡沫破滅了… ？

AI泡沫破滅了… ？

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評論 (72)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "AI泡沫破滅了… ？"?

What are the current odds for "AI泡沫破滅了… ？"?

How will "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" be resolved?

Can I follow "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "AI泡沫破滅了… ？"?

What does a price of 16¢ for "2026年12月31日" mean?

When does the "AI泡沫破滅了… ？" market close?

What are traders saying about "AI泡沫破滅了… ？"?

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