**Heightened Houthi control over strategic positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has compressed weekly vessel transits into the 170-189 range, driving the 73.4% market-implied probability for that bracket.** In mid-September 2026, Houthi forces seized Mokha port, the Hanish islands, and Perim (Mayyun) Island, securing influence over both shores and the narrowest passage. This escalation raised war-risk premiums (now around 0.5–1% of hull value) and prompted selective rerouting or AIS suppression, particularly for Saudi-linked tankers. Daily transits fell to the low-to-mid 20s from August averages near 40–45, consistent with Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch data showing roughly 22–26 vessels per day in recent readings. At those levels, a seven-day total (Sept. 14–20) lands squarely in the 170-189 bucket. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 400 weekly transits; post-2023 disruption volumes had partially recovered before this latest squeeze. Some liner operators (Maersk, MSC, Cosco/OOCL) have restarted limited Suez services, supporting a modest rebound in container traffic, yet overall flows remain ~60% below historical norms amid ongoing missile and drone threats. Traders price the narrower 190-209 and higher brackets at under 10% each because sustained daily rates above 30 appear unlikely without rapid de-escalation. The sub-170 outcome holds 13.3% odds, reflecting downside risk if enforcement tightens further. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these AIS-derived counts, embedding the latest security developments and partial service restorations into a clear consensus around the current suppressed equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
230+ 8.1%
<170 <1%
210-229 <1%
190-209 <1%
$17,901 Vol.
$17,901 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
13%
170-189
73%
190-209
<1%
210-229
10%
230+
8%
230+ 8.1%
<170 <1%
210-229 <1%
190-209 <1%
$17,901 Vol.
$17,901 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$7,453 Vol.
13%
170-189
$4,036 Vol.
73%
190-209
$3,027 Vol.
<1%
210-229
$1,678 Vol.
10%
230+
$1,706 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened Houthi control over strategic positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has compressed weekly vessel transits into the 170-189 range, driving the 73.4% market-implied probability for that bracket.**
In mid-September 2026, Houthi forces seized Mokha port, the Hanish islands, and Perim (Mayyun) Island, securing influence over both shores and the narrowest passage. This escalation raised war-risk premiums (now around 0.5–1% of hull value) and prompted selective rerouting or AIS suppression, particularly for Saudi-linked tankers. Daily transits fell to the low-to-mid 20s from August averages near 40–45, consistent with Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch data showing roughly 22–26 vessels per day in recent readings.
At those levels, a seven-day total (Sept. 14–20) lands squarely in the 170-189 bucket. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 400 weekly transits; post-2023 disruption volumes had partially recovered before this latest squeeze. Some liner operators (Maersk, MSC, Cosco/OOCL) have restarted limited Suez services, supporting a modest rebound in container traffic, yet overall flows remain ~60% below historical norms amid ongoing missile and drone threats.
Traders price the narrower 190-209 and higher brackets at under 10% each because sustained daily rates above 30 appear unlikely without rapid de-escalation. The sub-170 outcome holds 13.3% odds, reflecting downside risk if enforcement tightens further. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these AIS-derived counts, embedding the latest security developments and partial service restorations into a clear consensus around the current suppressed equilibrium.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$17,901End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened Houthi control over strategic positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has compressed weekly vessel transits into the 170-189 range, driving the 73.4% market-implied probability for that bracket.**
In mid-September 2026, Houthi forces seized Mokha port, the Hanish islands, and Perim (Mayyun) Island, securing influence over both shores and the narrowest passage. This escalation raised war-risk premiums (now around 0.5–1% of hull value) and prompted selective rerouting or AIS suppression, particularly for Saudi-linked tankers. Daily transits fell to the low-to-mid 20s from August averages near 40–45, consistent with Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch data showing roughly 22–26 vessels per day in recent readings.
At those levels, a seven-day total (Sept. 14–20) lands squarely in the 170-189 bucket. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 400 weekly transits; post-2023 disruption volumes had partially recovered before this latest squeeze. Some liner operators (Maersk, MSC, Cosco/OOCL) have restarted limited Suez services, supporting a modest rebound in container traffic, yet overall flows remain ~60% below historical norms amid ongoing missile and drone threats.
Traders price the narrower 190-209 and higher brackets at under 10% each because sustained daily rates above 30 appear unlikely without rapid de-escalation. The sub-170 outcome holds 13.3% odds, reflecting downside risk if enforcement tightens further. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these AIS-derived counts, embedding the latest security developments and partial service restorations into a clear consensus around the current suppressed equilibrium.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$17,901End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Heightened Houthi control over strategic positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has compressed weekly vessel transits into the 170-189 range, driving the 73.4% market-implied probability for that bracket.** In mid-September 2026, Houthi forces seized Mokha port, the Hanish islands, and Perim (Mayyun) Island, securing influence over both shores and the narrowest passage. This escalation raised war-risk premiums (now around 0.5–1% of hull value) and prompted selective rerouting or AIS suppression, particularly for Saudi-linked tankers. Daily transits fell to the low-to-mid 20s from August averages near 40–45, consistent with Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch data showing roughly 22–26 vessels per day in recent readings. At those levels, a seven-day total (Sept. 14–20) lands squarely in the 170-189 bucket. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 400 weekly transits; post-2023 disruption volumes had partially recovered before this latest squeeze. Some liner operators (Maersk, MSC, Cosco/OOCL) have restarted limited Suez services, supporting a modest rebound in container traffic, yet overall flows remain ~60% below historical norms amid ongoing missile and drone threats. Traders price the narrower 190-209 and higher brackets at under 10% each because sustained daily rates above 30 appear unlikely without rapid de-escalation. The sub-170 outcome holds 13.3% odds, reflecting downside risk if enforcement tightens further. The market aggregates real-capital bets on these AIS-derived counts, embedding the latest security developments and partial service restorations into a clear consensus around the current suppressed equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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