Iran has conducted recent drone strikes on Iranian Kurdish opposition bases in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, including Komala sites in late October and early November 2026, as part of its broader campaign against exile groups. At the same time, reports indicate Tehran has excluded Iraqi government or military targets from updated response lists amid the US-Iran conflict, while Iran-aligned militias in Iraq continue using cross-border territory for operations against Gulf states and US interests. Baghdad has reinforced border areas, expanded contingency plans, and pursued negotiations with factions to assert control over weapons, amid US-Saudi strikes on those groups and diplomatic pressure on border crossings. These developments shape trader views on whether Iran will escalate direct targeting of Iraqi territory by any resolution deadline.