Everett Jackson leads trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the Texas 30th Congressional District Republican primary nomination via the May 26 runoff, driven by his dominant 38% first-place finish in the March 3 primary against Sholdon Daniels' 24% in a crowded four-candidate field. Jackson's grassroots support as a DeSoto small business owner, coupled with a recent endorsement from the conservative True Texas Project, has solidified his frontrunner position despite Daniels' competitive fundraising and appeals to voters valuing his Army veteran status and America First policy emphasis. Mutual attacks over past legal issues, including Jackson's prior eligibility questions, have emerged in recent weeks, but markets favor Jackson's primary momentum. Eliminated challengers Gregor Heise and Nils Walker trail far behind.