Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов губернатора Южной Дакоты
Победитель выборов губернатора Южной Дакоты
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
96%
Демократ
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
$0 Объем
96%
Демократ
$2,444 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Объем
$2,444Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$2,444Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican nominee at 95.5% implied probability for South Dakota's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched Republican dominance—marked by GOP supermajorities in the legislature, consistent landslide presidential margins for Republicans, and no Democratic governor since 1974. Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden assumed office after Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation to join the Trump administration as DHS Secretary, but recent March polls show U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson leading a crowded GOP primary field (28-33% support) over Rhoden, Toby Doeden, and Jon Hansen amid debates over property tax reforms. Democrats' Dan Ahlers and Robert Arnold face steep uphill paths, with independents unlikely to consolidate opposition. Scenarios challenging this include a major GOP nominee scandal post-June 2 primary or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы