Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат Южной Каролины
Победитель выборов в Сенат Южной Каролины
$13,289 Объем
$13,289 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
80%
Демократ
20%
$13,289 Объем
$13,289 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
$5,439 Объем
80%
Демократ
$7,850 Объем
20%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$13,289Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$13,289Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Republicans an 80.5% implied probability of winning the South Carolina Senate seat in 2026, anchored by the state's entrenched Republican dominance (R+13 partisan voting index) and the incumbency edge of Lindsey Graham, who has signaled intent to run for re-election. No Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate race since 2004, with recent hypothetical matchups showing Graham leading by 20+ points amid weak Democratic recruiting and his superior fundraising. Absent a high-profile Republican primary upset—such as from challengers like state Rep. Adam Morgan—or a major scandal, the general election path favors the GOP incumbent. Primaries are slated for June 2026, with the contest shaped by South Carolina's reliable Republican turnout in federal races.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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