Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through late March 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.25–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing this bin at 50.7% implied probability, while the adjacent 1.20–1.24°C outcome trades at 34.5%. February 2026 clocked in at 1.55°C (Berkeley Earth) or 1.49°C (Copernicus), fifth-warmest on record, but the ongoing transition from weak La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—forecast at 55–90% likelihood for March–May by NOAA CPC—has cooled atmospheric patterns, tempering extremes. Record U.S. March warmth provides upward pull, yet balanced by neutral Pacific SSTs; final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth reports due mid-April could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоМарт 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
1,25–1,29ºC 50.8%
1,20–1,24ºC 35%
>1,29ºC 10.0%
1,15–1,19ºC 5%
$211,874 Объем
$211,874 Объем
10 апр. 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
5%
1,20–1,24ºC
35%
1,25–1,29ºC
51%
>1,29ºC
10%
1,25–1,29ºC 50.8%
1,20–1,24ºC 35%
>1,29ºC 10.0%
1,15–1,19ºC 5%
$211,874 Объем
$211,874 Объем
10 апр. 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
$28,111 Объем
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$26,642 Объем
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$52,403 Объем
5%
1,20–1,24ºC
$38,260 Объем
35%
1,25–1,29ºC
$25,394 Объем
51%
>1,29ºC
$41,063 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through late March 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.25–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing this bin at 50.7% implied probability, while the adjacent 1.20–1.24°C outcome trades at 34.5%. February 2026 clocked in at 1.55°C (Berkeley Earth) or 1.49°C (Copernicus), fifth-warmest on record, but the ongoing transition from weak La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—forecast at 55–90% likelihood for March–May by NOAA CPC—has cooled atmospheric patterns, tempering extremes. Record U.S. March warmth provides upward pull, yet balanced by neutral Pacific SSTs; final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth reports due mid-April could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$211,874Дата окончания
10 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through late March 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.25–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing this bin at 50.7% implied probability, while the adjacent 1.20–1.24°C outcome trades at 34.5%. February 2026 clocked in at 1.55°C (Berkeley Earth) or 1.49°C (Copernicus), fifth-warmest on record, but the ongoing transition from weak La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—forecast at 55–90% likelihood for March–May by NOAA CPC—has cooled atmospheric patterns, tempering extremes. Record U.S. March warmth provides upward pull, yet balanced by neutral Pacific SSTs; final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth reports due mid-April could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$211,874Дата окончания
10 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through late March 2026 shows global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.25–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, aligning with trader consensus pricing this bin at 50.7% implied probability, while the adjacent 1.20–1.24°C outcome trades at 34.5%. February 2026 clocked in at 1.55°C (Berkeley Earth) or 1.49°C (Copernicus), fifth-warmest on record, but the ongoing transition from weak La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—forecast at 55–90% likelihood for March–May by NOAA CPC—has cooled atmospheric patterns, tempering extremes. Record U.S. March warmth provides upward pull, yet balanced by neutral Pacific SSTs; final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth reports due mid-April could refine these market-implied odds amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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