Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting 21 announcements to date per Ballotpedia as of March 27—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids—amid a record 57 total House retirements, disproportionately from Republicans. No Democratic announcements have occurred in the past month, stabilizing sentiment after early-year exits by veterans like Steny Hoyer and Julia Brownley, but traders anticipate 3–6 more from senior members in competitive districts or facing primary challenges before state filing deadlines this spring and summer. Historical midterm patterns, where the president's party sees higher turnover, underscore the closely contested race between low-20s and mid-20s outcomes, with accelerated Republican retirements potentially easing Democratic pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Меньше 20
3%
20–23
10%
24–27
30%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
6%
40+
6%
24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Меньше 20
$0 Объем
3%
20–23
$3,774 Объем
10%
24–27
$3,153 Объем
30%
28–31
$0 Объем
15%
32–35
$0 Объем
15%
36–39
$0 Объем
6%
40+
$0 Объем
6%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting 21 announcements to date per Ballotpedia as of March 27—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids—amid a record 57 total House retirements, disproportionately from Republicans. No Democratic announcements have occurred in the past month, stabilizing sentiment after early-year exits by veterans like Steny Hoyer and Julia Brownley, but traders anticipate 3–6 more from senior members in competitive districts or facing primary challenges before state filing deadlines this spring and summer. Historical midterm patterns, where the president's party sees higher turnover, underscore the closely contested race between low-20s and mid-20s outcomes, with accelerated Republican retirements potentially easing Democratic pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Объем
$6,927Дата окончания
Aug 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting 21 announcements to date per Ballotpedia as of March 27—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids—amid a record 57 total House retirements, disproportionately from Republicans. No Democratic announcements have occurred in the past month, stabilizing sentiment after early-year exits by veterans like Steny Hoyer and Julia Brownley, but traders anticipate 3–6 more from senior members in competitive districts or facing primary challenges before state filing deadlines this spring and summer. Historical midterm patterns, where the president's party sees higher turnover, underscore the closely contested race between low-20s and mid-20s outcomes, with accelerated Republican retirements potentially easing Democratic pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$6,927Дата окончания
Aug 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 30%, reflecting 21 announcements to date per Ballotpedia as of March 27—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids—amid a record 57 total House retirements, disproportionately from Republicans. No Democratic announcements have occurred in the past month, stabilizing sentiment after early-year exits by veterans like Steny Hoyer and Julia Brownley, but traders anticipate 3–6 more from senior members in competitive districts or facing primary challenges before state filing deadlines this spring and summer. Historical midterm patterns, where the president's party sees higher turnover, underscore the closely contested race between low-20s and mid-20s outcomes, with accelerated Republican retirements potentially easing Democratic pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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