Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-term forecasts for Tokyo's April 5 high temperature, with models clustering around 21–22°C amid persistent southerly flows advecting warmer air from subtropical regions during early spring. Recent JMA updates note above-average warmth over the past week—highs in the upper teens Celsius—driven by weak high-pressure ridging, boosting implied probabilities for 22°C (29.5%) and 21°C (25%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover and scattered showers, which could cap peaks at 20°C (18.5%) by reducing solar insolation, versus clearer skies pushing toward 23°C or higher (18.5%); historical April 5 averages hover near 20°C. New JMA advisories and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs expected within 24 hours may sharpen the outlook.