Trader consensus heavily favors 56-57°F (39.5% implied probability) for New York City's highest temperature on March 16, propelled by ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converging on this mild range due to a persistent high-pressure ridge enabling warm air advection from the south. National Weather Service guidance reinforces this, pinpointing 56-57°F at Central Park observatory—the market's resolution benchmark—amid light winds and partial sunshine. Recent 12z model runs have sharpened these odds, eroding support for cooler 54-55°F (18.1%) as departing Arctic air masses yield to seasonal norms. March climatology, with typical highs near 52°F, underscores the positioning of 58-59°F (18.5%) as a plausible upper outlier under clear skies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Нью-Йорке 16 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Нью-Йорке 16 марта?
54-55°F 100.0%
45°F или ниже <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$139,949 Объем
$139,949 Объем
45°F или ниже
Нет
46-47°F
Нет
48-49°F
Нет
50-51°F
Нет
52-53°F
Нет
54-55°F
Да
56-57°F
Нет
58-59°F
Нет
60-61°F
Нет
62-63°F
Нет
64°F или выше
Нет
54-55°F 100.0%
45°F или ниже <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$139,949 Объем
$139,949 Объем
45°F или ниже
Нет
46-47°F
Нет
48-49°F
Нет
50-51°F
Нет
52-53°F
Нет
54-55°F
Да
56-57°F
Нет
58-59°F
Нет
60-61°F
Нет
62-63°F
Нет
64°F или выше
Нет
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 56-57°F (39.5% implied probability) for New York City's highest temperature on March 16, propelled by ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converging on this mild range due to a persistent high-pressure ridge enabling warm air advection from the south. National Weather Service guidance reinforces this, pinpointing 56-57°F at Central Park observatory—the market's resolution benchmark—amid light winds and partial sunshine. Recent 12z model runs have sharpened these odds, eroding support for cooler 54-55°F (18.1%) as departing Arctic air masses yield to seasonal norms. March climatology, with typical highs near 52°F, underscores the positioning of 58-59°F (18.5%) as a plausible upper outlier under clear skies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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