Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, driven by authoritative National Weather Service observations at Central Park—the official measurement site—already recording 64°F around 3 a.m. EDT, securing the threshold well before peak daytime heating. Short-range forecast models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) project afternoon highs near 65-70°F under a persistent blocking high-pressure ridge, which induces subsidence warming, southerly winds, and clear skies for enhanced solar insolation—well above the 57°F climatological April average. While inherent model uncertainty exists, realistic challenges like an abrupt cold frontal passage or dense marine stratus are improbable given current synoptic patterns; watch NWS updates and final daily max through midnight for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 100.0%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
$181,810 Объем
$181,810 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58°F or higher
100%
58°F or higher 100.0%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
$181,810 Объем
$181,810 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
40-41°F
$13,238 Объем
<1%
42-43°F
$8,842 Объем
<1%
44-45°F
$10,481 Объем
<1%
48-49°F
$11,347 Объем
<1%
52-53°F
$9,845 Объем
<1%
54-55°F
$11,393 Объем
<1%
56-57°F
$28,605 Объем
<1%
58°F or higher
$42,619 Объем
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, driven by authoritative National Weather Service observations at Central Park—the official measurement site—already recording 64°F around 3 a.m. EDT, securing the threshold well before peak daytime heating. Short-range forecast models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) project afternoon highs near 65-70°F under a persistent blocking high-pressure ridge, which induces subsidence warming, southerly winds, and clear skies for enhanced solar insolation—well above the 57°F climatological April average. While inherent model uncertainty exists, realistic challenges like an abrupt cold frontal passage or dense marine stratus are improbable given current synoptic patterns; watch NWS updates and final daily max through midnight for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Объем
$181,810Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Окно спора
Окончательный
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, driven by authoritative National Weather Service observations at Central Park—the official measurement site—already recording 64°F around 3 a.m. EDT, securing the threshold well before peak daytime heating. Short-range forecast models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) project afternoon highs near 65-70°F under a persistent blocking high-pressure ridge, which induces subsidence warming, southerly winds, and clear skies for enhanced solar insolation—well above the 57°F climatological April average. While inherent model uncertainty exists, realistic challenges like an abrupt cold frontal passage or dense marine stratus are improbable given current synoptic patterns; watch NWS updates and final daily max through midnight for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$181,810Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Окно спора
Окончательный
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, driven by authoritative National Weather Service observations at Central Park—the official measurement site—already recording 64°F around 3 a.m. EDT, securing the threshold well before peak daytime heating. Short-range forecast models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) project afternoon highs near 65-70°F under a persistent blocking high-pressure ridge, which induces subsidence warming, southerly winds, and clear skies for enhanced solar insolation—well above the 57°F climatological April average. While inherent model uncertainty exists, realistic challenges like an abrupt cold frontal passage or dense marine stratus are improbable given current synoptic patterns; watch NWS updates and final daily max through midnight for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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