Latest China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project Beijing's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 19-22°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds fostering mild advection, explaining the tight race among these outcomes at 17-22.5% implied probabilities each. The edge to 23°C or higher (30.5%) reflects upside potential from clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid a warmer-than-average March trend with recent highs near 24°C, while lower bins like 18°C (17%) account for risks of increased cloudiness or a transient northern cold surge capping warming. Trader consensus highlights 5-day forecast uncertainty, with daily model updates and CMA briefings at 18:00 UTC likely to refine probabilities before resolution at the official Beijing observatory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
23°C or higher 27%
20°C 22%
19°C 21%
21°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
3%
14°C
10%
15°C
12%
16°C
14%
17°C
13%
18°C
12%
19°C
21%
20°C
22%
21°C
16%
22°C
14%
23°C or higher
27%
23°C or higher 27%
20°C 22%
19°C 21%
21°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
$25 Объем
3%
14°C
$0 Объем
10%
15°C
$0 Объем
12%
16°C
$0 Объем
14%
17°C
$0 Объем
13%
18°C
$5 Объем
12%
19°C
$0 Объем
21%
20°C
$0 Объем
22%
21°C
$0 Объем
16%
22°C
$0 Объем
14%
23°C or higher
$54 Объем
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project Beijing's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 19-22°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds fostering mild advection, explaining the tight race among these outcomes at 17-22.5% implied probabilities each. The edge to 23°C or higher (30.5%) reflects upside potential from clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid a warmer-than-average March trend with recent highs near 24°C, while lower bins like 18°C (17%) account for risks of increased cloudiness or a transient northern cold surge capping warming. Trader consensus highlights 5-day forecast uncertainty, with daily model updates and CMA briefings at 18:00 UTC likely to refine probabilities before resolution at the official Beijing observatory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Объем
$84Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project Beijing's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 19-22°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds fostering mild advection, explaining the tight race among these outcomes at 17-22.5% implied probabilities each. The edge to 23°C or higher (30.5%) reflects upside potential from clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid a warmer-than-average March trend with recent highs near 24°C, while lower bins like 18°C (17%) account for risks of increased cloudiness or a transient northern cold surge capping warming. Trader consensus highlights 5-day forecast uncertainty, with daily model updates and CMA briefings at 18:00 UTC likely to refine probabilities before resolution at the official Beijing observatory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$84Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project Beijing's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 19-22°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds fostering mild advection, explaining the tight race among these outcomes at 17-22.5% implied probabilities each. The edge to 23°C or higher (30.5%) reflects upside potential from clear skies maximizing solar insolation amid a warmer-than-average March trend with recent highs near 24°C, while lower bins like 18°C (17%) account for risks of increased cloudiness or a transient northern cold surge capping warming. Trader consensus highlights 5-day forecast uncertainty, with daily model updates and CMA briefings at 18:00 UTC likely to refine probabilities before resolution at the official Beijing observatory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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