Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast guidance for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 30, with 43% implied probability for 18°C and 37.5% for 17°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration projections via Hong Kong Observatory indicating highs of 17-18°C amid rain and cloud cover. Recent warmer readings peaked near 24°C on March 29, but an approaching frontal system is expected to suppress diurnal heating through persistent overcast skies and possible morning showers, capping peaks below 20°C in most global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF. Differentiating factors include precipitation timing—earlier onset favors 17°C, delayed clearing boosts 19°C odds—and urban heat effects at the official Wuhan meteorological station. New CMA updates overnight could refine this narrow range before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 30?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 30?
18°C 49%
17°C 37%
19°C 25%
20°C 5.5%
$20,666 Объем
$20,666 Объем
11°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
17°C
37%
18°C
43%
19°C
20%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
5%
18°C 49%
17°C 37%
19°C 25%
20°C 5.5%
$20,666 Объем
$20,666 Объем
11°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
17°C
37%
18°C
43%
19°C
20%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Окно спора
Окончательный
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Окно спора
Окончательный
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast guidance for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 30, with 43% implied probability for 18°C and 37.5% for 17°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration projections via Hong Kong Observatory indicating highs of 17-18°C amid rain and cloud cover. Recent warmer readings peaked near 24°C on March 29, but an approaching frontal system is expected to suppress diurnal heating through persistent overcast skies and possible morning showers, capping peaks below 20°C in most global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF. Differentiating factors include precipitation timing—earlier onset favors 17°C, delayed clearing boosts 19°C odds—and urban heat effects at the official Wuhan meteorological station. New CMA updates overnight could refine this narrow range before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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