Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 72-77°F outcomes at 70% combined implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Dallas highs around 73-76°F on April 4 amid early spring variability. Recent recovery from a mid-March cold front has stabilized southerly winds and high pressure aloft, favoring above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region outlook, but 20% odds on 67°F or below capture risks from partial cloud cover or a weak disturbance timing. Differentiating factors include model spreads in boundary layer heating and Gulf moisture influx—ECMWF ensembles trend slightly cooler with more clouds, while GFS shows drier, warmer potential. Watch daily 12Z model runs and NWS updates through April 2 for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Dallas on April 4?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 4?
76-77°F 27%
72-73°F 26%
74-75°F 22%
82-83°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
67°F or below
12%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
26%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
13%
86°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 27%
72-73°F 26%
74-75°F 22%
82-83°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
67°F or below
$5 Объем
12%
68-69°F
$0 Объем
11%
70-71°F
$0 Объем
11%
72-73°F
$0 Объем
26%
74-75°F
$10 Объем
25%
76-77°F
$46 Объем
27%
78-79°F
$0 Объем
12%
80-81°F
$0 Объем
11%
82-83°F
$0 Объем
14%
84-85°F
$0 Объем
13%
86°F or higher
$345 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 72-77°F outcomes at 70% combined implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Dallas highs around 73-76°F on April 4 amid early spring variability. Recent recovery from a mid-March cold front has stabilized southerly winds and high pressure aloft, favoring above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region outlook, but 20% odds on 67°F or below capture risks from partial cloud cover or a weak disturbance timing. Differentiating factors include model spreads in boundary layer heating and Gulf moisture influx—ECMWF ensembles trend slightly cooler with more clouds, while GFS shows drier, warmer potential. Watch daily 12Z model runs and NWS updates through April 2 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Объем
$406Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 72-77°F outcomes at 70% combined implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Dallas highs around 73-76°F on April 4 amid early spring variability. Recent recovery from a mid-March cold front has stabilized southerly winds and high pressure aloft, favoring above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region outlook, but 20% odds on 67°F or below capture risks from partial cloud cover or a weak disturbance timing. Differentiating factors include model spreads in boundary layer heating and Gulf moisture influx—ECMWF ensembles trend slightly cooler with more clouds, while GFS shows drier, warmer potential. Watch daily 12Z model runs and NWS updates through April 2 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$406Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race among 72-77°F outcomes at 70% combined implied probability, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Dallas highs around 73-76°F on April 4 amid early spring variability. Recent recovery from a mid-March cold front has stabilized southerly winds and high pressure aloft, favoring above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region outlook, but 20% odds on 67°F or below capture risks from partial cloud cover or a weak disturbance timing. Differentiating factors include model spreads in boundary layer heating and Gulf moisture influx—ECMWF ensembles trend slightly cooler with more clouds, while GFS shows drier, warmer potential. Watch daily 12Z model runs and NWS updates through April 2 for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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