Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 35.5% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, reflecting a potential high-pressure ridge over northern Italy fostering clear skies, subsidence, and peak solar heating during early spring. The spread in model members supports clustered outcomes around 19–22°C (23.4–18.5% each), capturing uncertainty from variable cloud cover and frontal timing in medium-range guidance. Recent 24-hour model runs have trended slightly warmer amid persistent mild advection from the Azores anticyclone, elevating upper-tail risks above climatological April 4 averages of 17°C. Watch the 12Z ECMWF update on April 1 for refined ridge evolution and peak temperature probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Milan on April 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 4?
23°C or higher 31%
19°C 22.9%
21°C 23%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
11%
16°C
15%
17°C
15%
18°C
17%
19°C
23%
20°C
19%
21°C
23%
22°C
18%
23°C or higher
31%
23°C or higher 31%
19°C 22.9%
21°C 23%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
13°C or below
$350 Объем
1%
14°C
$290 Объем
1%
15°C
$60 Объем
11%
16°C
$10 Объем
15%
17°C
$10 Объем
15%
18°C
$0 Объем
17%
19°C
$0 Объем
23%
20°C
$10 Объем
19%
21°C
$10 Объем
23%
22°C
$0 Объем
18%
23°C or higher
$0 Объем
31%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 35.5% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, reflecting a potential high-pressure ridge over northern Italy fostering clear skies, subsidence, and peak solar heating during early spring. The spread in model members supports clustered outcomes around 19–22°C (23.4–18.5% each), capturing uncertainty from variable cloud cover and frontal timing in medium-range guidance. Recent 24-hour model runs have trended slightly warmer amid persistent mild advection from the Azores anticyclone, elevating upper-tail risks above climatological April 4 averages of 17°C. Watch the 12Z ECMWF update on April 1 for refined ridge evolution and peak temperature probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Объем
$741Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 35.5% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, reflecting a potential high-pressure ridge over northern Italy fostering clear skies, subsidence, and peak solar heating during early spring. The spread in model members supports clustered outcomes around 19–22°C (23.4–18.5% each), capturing uncertainty from variable cloud cover and frontal timing in medium-range guidance. Recent 24-hour model runs have trended slightly warmer amid persistent mild advection from the Azores anticyclone, elevating upper-tail risks above climatological April 4 averages of 17°C. Watch the 12Z ECMWF update on April 1 for refined ridge evolution and peak temperature probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$741Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 35.5% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 4, reflecting a potential high-pressure ridge over northern Italy fostering clear skies, subsidence, and peak solar heating during early spring. The spread in model members supports clustered outcomes around 19–22°C (23.4–18.5% each), capturing uncertainty from variable cloud cover and frontal timing in medium-range guidance. Recent 24-hour model runs have trended slightly warmer amid persistent mild advection from the Azores anticyclone, elevating upper-tail risks above climatological April 4 averages of 17°C. Watch the 12Z ECMWF update on April 1 for refined ridge evolution and peak temperature probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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