Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating highs in this range under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with 16°C leading at 29% implied probability. Differentiating factors include model spread from cloud cover variability—persistent afternoon stratus could cap peaks at 14–15°C (16.5% and 14.5%), while clear skies and southerly föhn-like flow might push toward 19°C or 20°C+ (9% each)—against early April climatological averages of 15–17°C. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal shifts from mild continental air mass dominance, but new numerical weather prediction runs expected today and tomorrow could narrow uncertainty as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Milan on April 1?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 1?
17°C 33%
16°C 29%
18°C 22%
14°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
8%
13°C
8%
14°C
15%
15°C
14%
16°C
29%
17°C
33%
18°C
22%
19°C
9%
20°C or higher
9%
17°C 33%
16°C 29%
18°C 22%
14°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
10°C or below
$164 Объем
1%
11°C
$193 Объем
1%
12°C
$10 Объем
8%
13°C
$14 Объем
8%
14°C
$11 Объем
15%
15°C
$22 Объем
14%
16°C
$0 Объем
29%
17°C
$37 Объем
33%
18°C
$14 Объем
22%
19°C
$6 Объем
9%
20°C or higher
$62 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating highs in this range under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with 16°C leading at 29% implied probability. Differentiating factors include model spread from cloud cover variability—persistent afternoon stratus could cap peaks at 14–15°C (16.5% and 14.5%), while clear skies and southerly föhn-like flow might push toward 19°C or 20°C+ (9% each)—against early April climatological averages of 15–17°C. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal shifts from mild continental air mass dominance, but new numerical weather prediction runs expected today and tomorrow could narrow uncertainty as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Объем
$534Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating highs in this range under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with 16°C leading at 29% implied probability. Differentiating factors include model spread from cloud cover variability—persistent afternoon stratus could cap peaks at 14–15°C (16.5% and 14.5%), while clear skies and southerly föhn-like flow might push toward 19°C or 20°C+ (9% each)—against early April climatological averages of 15–17°C. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal shifts from mild continental air mass dominance, but new numerical weather prediction runs expected today and tomorrow could narrow uncertainty as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$534Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating highs in this range under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy, with 16°C leading at 29% implied probability. Differentiating factors include model spread from cloud cover variability—persistent afternoon stratus could cap peaks at 14–15°C (16.5% and 14.5%), while clear skies and southerly föhn-like flow might push toward 19°C or 20°C+ (9% each)—against early April climatological averages of 15–17°C. Recent 24-hour updates show minimal shifts from mild continental air mass dominance, but new numerical weather prediction runs expected today and tomorrow could narrow uncertainty as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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