Polymarket traders exhibit split sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026, with 1.0-2.0% holding a slim lead at 31.5% implied probability versus 7.0%+ at 28.0%, underscoring uncertainty amid baseline forecasts and tail risks. ECB staff projections from December 2024 forecast 1.4% growth, bolstered by disinflation to 1.9% HICP and 25 basis points rate cuts through mid-2025, yet Germany's snap election on February 23—favoring fiscal expansion under CDU's Merz—fuels upside bets on stimulus-driven acceleration. Countervailing pressures include potential U.S. tariffs under Trump and persistent energy vulnerabilities, pricing 20.2% odds of contraction. Key catalysts: Q4 GDP release January 30 and ECB policy meeting same day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено1,0–2,0% 52%
<0% 23.5%
5,0-6,0% 16.3%
2,0-3,0% 16%
<0%
16%
0-1,0%
22%
1,0–2,0%
35%
2,0-3,0%
16%
3,0–4,0%
5%
4,0-5,0%
9%
5,0-6,0%
16%
6,0-7,0%
15%
7,0%+
28%
1,0–2,0% 52%
<0% 23.5%
5,0-6,0% 16.3%
2,0-3,0% 16%
<0%
16%
0-1,0%
22%
1,0–2,0%
35%
2,0-3,0%
16%
3,0–4,0%
5%
4,0-5,0%
9%
5,0-6,0%
16%
6,0-7,0%
15%
7,0%+
28%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders exhibit split sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026, with 1.0-2.0% holding a slim lead at 31.5% implied probability versus 7.0%+ at 28.0%, underscoring uncertainty amid baseline forecasts and tail risks. ECB staff projections from December 2024 forecast 1.4% growth, bolstered by disinflation to 1.9% HICP and 25 basis points rate cuts through mid-2025, yet Germany's snap election on February 23—favoring fiscal expansion under CDU's Merz—fuels upside bets on stimulus-driven acceleration. Countervailing pressures include potential U.S. tariffs under Trump and persistent energy vulnerabilities, pricing 20.2% odds of contraction. Key catalysts: Q4 GDP release January 30 and ECB policy meeting same day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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