Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$11,650 Объем
$11,650 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
5%
$11,650 Объем
$11,650 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$6,825 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$4,825 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$11,650Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$11,650Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic Bay Area seat rated Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball and Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. With the March 6 filing deadline passed, the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary features Simon against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew, positioning two Democrats to advance to November regardless. This structural dynamic, combined with the district's strong Democratic baseline from 2024 results, drives trader consensus implying near-certainty for a Democratic general election winner. Challenges would require an unforeseen scandal, legal disqualification, or late Republican ballot access, though filing closure limits such shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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