Market icon
Política·Médio Oriente

Quem será o próximo primeiro-ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?

Market icon
Política·Médio Oriente

Quem será o próximo primeiro-ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?

Benjamin Netanyahu 46%

Naftali Bennett 23%

Gadi Eizenkot 18.1%

Yariv Levin 4.4%

Polymarket

$4,126,950 Vol.

Benjamin Netanyahu 46%

Naftali Bennett 23%

Gadi Eizenkot 18.1%

Yariv Levin 4.4%

Polymarket

$4,126,950 Vol.

Benjamin Netanyahu

$454,756 Vol.

46%

Naftali Bennett

$785,897 Vol.

23%

Gadi Eizenkot

$494,506 Vol.

18%

Yariv Levin

$110,844 Vol.

4%

Yair Lapid

$297,469 Vol.

3%

Benny Gantz

$177,515 Vol.

2%

Avigdor Lieberman

$343,581 Vol.

1%

Yair Golan

$253,218 Vol.

1%

Itamar Ben Gvir

$109,882 Vol.

1%

Gideon Sa’ar

$372,176 Vol.

1%

Yossi Cohen

$353,027 Vol.

1%

Ayelet Shaked

$67,743 Vol.

<1%

Moshe Feiglin

$256,615 Vol.

<1%

Yoaz Hendel

$49,745 Vol.

<1%

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors Benjamin Netanyahu at 46% implied probability to remain Prime Minister after the next Knesset election, by October 27, 2026, reflecting recent polls where Likud holds steady around 28 seats amid ongoing Iran war uncertainties and no coalition gains. Naftali Bennett's 22.5% follows his February party relaunch and reform pledges, but slipped after March surveys showed his list trailing. Gadi Eisenkot surged to 18.1% as polls from March 19 onward positioned his Yashar party ahead of Bennett for the first time, bolstered by his former IDF chief credentials and recent rejection of a Bennett unity bid. Lower odds for Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and others stem from diminished opposition bloc cohesion, with coalition stability and potential snap election talks as key upcoming catalysts.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,126,950
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 14, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors Benjamin Netanyahu at 46% implied probability to remain Prime Minister after the next Knesset election, by October 27, 2026, reflecting recent polls where Likud holds steady around 28 seats amid ongoing Iran war uncertainties and no coalition gains. Naftali Bennett's 22.5% follows his February party relaunch and reform pledges, but slipped after March surveys showed his list trailing. Gadi Eisenkot surged to 18.1% as polls from March 19 onward positioned his Yashar party ahead of Bennett for the first time, bolstered by his former IDF chief credentials and recent rejection of a Bennett unity bid. Lower odds for Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and others stem from diminished opposition bloc cohesion, with coalition stability and potential snap election talks as key upcoming catalysts.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,126,950
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 14, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem será o próximo primeiro-ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Benjamin Netanyahu" at 46%, followed by "Naftali Bennett" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem será o próximo primeiro-ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?" has generated $4.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem será o próximo primeiro-ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem será o próximo primeiro-ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?" is "Benjamin Netanyahu" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Naftali Bennett" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem será o próximo primeiro-ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.