Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, dismissing it as maximalist and unreasonable while issuing counter-demands for reparations, nuclear sovereignty, missile rights, and full control over the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing airstrikes on Israel and Gulf states like Kuwait. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, claiming productive talks despite Tehran's denials and continued hostilities, including Israeli operations against Iranian naval commanders. These hardened positions, following failed mediations by Oman, Egypt, and Pakistan, reflect deep obstacles to de-escalation, with trader sentiment prioritizing military degradation and diplomatic leverage over imminent agreement as the April deadline looms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCessar-fogo EUA x Irã até...?
Cessar-fogo EUA x Irã até...?
$61,670,030 Vol.
31 de março
2%
7 de abril
8%
15 de abril
17%
30 de abril
32%
31 de maio
48%
30 de junho
60%
31 de dezembro
75%
$61,670,030 Vol.
31 de março
$38,932,405 Vol.
2%
7 de abril
$1,418,619 Vol.
8%
15 de abril
$6,005,433 Vol.
17%
30 de abril
$6,696,793 Vol.
32%
31 de maio
$2,269,801 Vol.
48%
30 de junho
$2,351,398 Vol.
60%
31 de dezembro
$515,141 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, dismissing it as maximalist and unreasonable while issuing counter-demands for reparations, nuclear sovereignty, missile rights, and full control over the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing airstrikes on Israel and Gulf states like Kuwait. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, claiming productive talks despite Tehran's denials and continued hostilities, including Israeli operations against Iranian naval commanders. These hardened positions, following failed mediations by Oman, Egypt, and Pakistan, reflect deep obstacles to de-escalation, with trader sentiment prioritizing military degradation and diplomatic leverage over imminent agreement as the April deadline looms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$61,670,030Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, dismissing it as maximalist and unreasonable while issuing counter-demands for reparations, nuclear sovereignty, missile rights, and full control over the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing airstrikes on Israel and Gulf states like Kuwait. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, claiming productive talks despite Tehran's denials and continued hostilities, including Israeli operations against Iranian naval commanders. These hardened positions, following failed mediations by Oman, Egypt, and Pakistan, reflect deep obstacles to de-escalation, with trader sentiment prioritizing military degradation and diplomatic leverage over imminent agreement as the April deadline looms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,670,030Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, dismissing it as maximalist and unreasonable while issuing counter-demands for reparations, nuclear sovereignty, missile rights, and full control over the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing airstrikes on Israel and Gulf states like Kuwait. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, claiming productive talks despite Tehran's denials and continued hostilities, including Israeli operations against Iranian naval commanders. These hardened positions, following failed mediations by Oman, Egypt, and Pakistan, reflect deep obstacles to de-escalation, with trader sentiment prioritizing military degradation and diplomatic leverage over imminent agreement as the April deadline looms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions