Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities marked by airstrikes and retaliatory attacks over the past month, the US delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan and Oman around March 25, prompting Iran to reject it while issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations, a full halt to strikes, and guarantees against future aggression. President Trump subsequently paused US attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days to facilitate talks, signaling de-escalation potential despite Tehran's insistence on reviewing terms without direct negotiations. Persistent strikes and Israel's concerns over a premature pause underscore obstacles, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over near-term resolution amid upcoming diplomatic responses and possible mediation breakthroughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCessar-fogo EUA x Irã até...?
Cessar-fogo EUA x Irã até...?
$61,656,283 Vol.
31 de março
2%
7 de abril
8%
15 de abril
17%
30 de abril
32%
31 de maio
48%
30 de junho
59%
31 de dezembro
75%
$61,656,283 Vol.
31 de março
$38,925,584 Vol.
2%
7 de abril
$1,412,816 Vol.
8%
15 de abril
$5,999,658 Vol.
17%
30 de abril
$6,696,481 Vol.
32%
31 de maio
$2,269,731 Vol.
48%
30 de junho
$2,348,403 Vol.
59%
31 de dezembro
$515,137 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities marked by airstrikes and retaliatory attacks over the past month, the US delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan and Oman around March 25, prompting Iran to reject it while issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations, a full halt to strikes, and guarantees against future aggression. President Trump subsequently paused US attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days to facilitate talks, signaling de-escalation potential despite Tehran's insistence on reviewing terms without direct negotiations. Persistent strikes and Israel's concerns over a premature pause underscore obstacles, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over near-term resolution amid upcoming diplomatic responses and possible mediation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$61,656,283Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities marked by airstrikes and retaliatory attacks over the past month, the US delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan and Oman around March 25, prompting Iran to reject it while issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations, a full halt to strikes, and guarantees against future aggression. President Trump subsequently paused US attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days to facilitate talks, signaling de-escalation potential despite Tehran's insistence on reviewing terms without direct negotiations. Persistent strikes and Israel's concerns over a premature pause underscore obstacles, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over near-term resolution amid upcoming diplomatic responses and possible mediation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,656,283Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities marked by airstrikes and retaliatory attacks over the past month, the US delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan and Oman around March 25, prompting Iran to reject it while issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations, a full halt to strikes, and guarantees against future aggression. President Trump subsequently paused US attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days to facilitate talks, signaling de-escalation potential despite Tehran's insistence on reviewing terms without direct negotiations. Persistent strikes and Israel's concerns over a premature pause underscore obstacles, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over near-term resolution amid upcoming diplomatic responses and possible mediation breakthroughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions