Market icon
Geopolítica·Trump

As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Trump

As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?

$41,182,945 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$41,182,945 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de março

$28,382,275 Vol.

9%

30 de abril

$5,758,805 Vol.

56%

31 de dezembro

$4,970,171 Vol.

66%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities escalated since late February 2026 with large-scale US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iranian missile and air defense capabilities, prompting recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia that wounded over a dozen troops and Houthi strikes on Israel. The Pentagon has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East amid considerations for up to 17,000 additional ground troops, potentially targeting strategic sites like Kharg Island near the Strait of Hormuz, though no US forces have entered Iranian territory. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal for de-escalation as air campaigns dominate, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term ground invasion odds due to recruitment challenges and diplomatic signals, while longer timelines account for potential escalation or congressional hurdles.

US-Iran hostilities escalated since late February 2026 with large-scale US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iranian missile and air defense capabilities, prompting recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia that wounded over a dozen troops and Houthi strikes on Israel. The Pentagon has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East amid considerations for up to 17,000 additional ground troops, potentially targeting strategic sites like Kharg Island near the Strait of Hormuz, though no US forces have entered Iranian territory. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal for de-escalation as air campaigns dominate, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term ground invasion odds due to recruitment challenges and diplomatic signals, while longer timelines account for potential escalation or congressional hurdles.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities escalated since late February 2026 with large-scale US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iranian missile and air defense capabilities, prompting recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia that wounded over a dozen troops and Houthi strikes on Israel. The Pentagon has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East amid considerations for up to 17,000 additional ground troops, potentially targeting strategic sites like Kharg Island near the Strait of Hormuz, though no US forces have entered Iranian territory. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal for de-escalation as air campaigns dominate, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term ground invasion odds due to recruitment challenges and diplomatic signals, while longer timelines account for potential escalation or congressional hurdles.

US-Iran hostilities escalated since late February 2026 with large-scale US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iranian missile and air defense capabilities, prompting recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia that wounded over a dozen troops and Houthi strikes on Israel. The Pentagon has deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East amid considerations for up to 17,000 additional ground troops, potentially targeting strategic sites like Kharg Island near the Strait of Hormuz, though no US forces have entered Iranian territory. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal for de-escalation as air campaigns dominate, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term ground invasion odds due to recruitment challenges and diplomatic signals, while longer timelines account for potential escalation or congressional hurdles.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 66%, followed by "30 de abril" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" has generated $41.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de abril" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "As forças dos EUA entram no Irã por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.