The substantial debt ceiling increase enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which raised the limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, has extended the timeline for the next potential impasse into mid-to-late 2027. This aligns with Congress’s consistent record of adjusting or suspending the limit more than 100 times since World War II, including multiple suspensions and reconciliation-based increases under both parties. Traders assign a 96.7 percent implied probability to no default by 2027 because these actions have always prevented a breach despite repeated brinkmanship. Even in a contested 2027 negotiation, extraordinary measures, prioritization of interest payments, and strong bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption or credit rating damage would likely avert outright default, though extended delays could still produce short-term volatility in Treasury markets.