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Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

Market icon
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

J.D. Vance 36.4%

Marco Rubio 21.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$500,224,019 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.4%

Marco Rubio 21.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$500,224,019 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$7,506,556 Vol.

36%

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Marco Rubio

$6,746,214 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,310,929 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,497,156 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,660,918 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,460,370 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,840,736 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,995,830 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,088,921 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,444,941 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,521,544 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,709,565 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,424,047 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,460,388 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,828,239 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,053,762 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,427,926 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,084,386 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,334,588 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,230,499 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,213,303 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,079,151 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,584,039 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,533,663 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,906,933 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,894,826 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,917,637 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,461,836 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,237,673 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,419,877 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,885,776 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,958,372 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,497,565 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,051,704 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,959,322 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s trader consensus lead at 49% stems from his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, where his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda on chronic disease, regulatory capture, and Big Pharma critiques resonates with GOP base voters skeptical of establishment health policy. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.4% amid reports of his indecision on a 2028 bid, including a March 20 statement he hasn't decided, potentially tied to foreign policy challenges. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21.9% reflects a surge from donor preferences over Vance in Trump adviser polling and elevated profile handling Iran tensions since early March, fueling shadow draft efforts. With Trump term-limited, the field remains fluid ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$500,224,019
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s trader consensus lead at 49% stems from his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, where his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda on chronic disease, regulatory capture, and Big Pharma critiques resonates with GOP base voters skeptical of establishment health policy. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.4% amid reports of his indecision on a 2028 bid, including a March 20 statement he hasn't decided, potentially tied to foreign policy challenges. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21.9% reflects a surge from donor preferences over Vance in Trump adviser polling and elevated profile handling Iran tensions since early March, fueling shadow draft efforts. With Trump term-limited, the field remains fluid ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$500,224,019
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 36%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" has generated $500.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.