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Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

Market icon
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 20.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$520,092,046 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 20.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$520,092,046 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$10,066,307 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,930,841 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,486,776 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,337,832 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,582,245 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,016,802 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,941,763 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,691,202 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,471,178 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,957,484 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,999,536 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,477,735 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,990,092 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,676,233 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,128,937 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,634,077 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,691,942 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,321,186 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,417,490 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,345,286 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,283,747 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,490,204 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,855,265 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,567,122 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,346,082 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,240,454 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,701,668 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,019,867 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,611,218 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,759,444 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,717,769 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,768,336 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,414,120 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,294,925 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,859,397 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 37% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21%, positioning Trump administration insiders as early frontrunners in an open primary constrained by term limits. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda's appeal to new voter coalitions, bolstered by a fresh midterm travel push despite polls showing MAHA supporter dissatisfaction. Vance holds as heir apparent but faces narrowing leads after CPAC straw polls where Rubio surged amid donor shifts favoring the latter's hawkish Iran stance and rising prediction market odds. 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal test of primary viability.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$520,092,046
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 37% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21%, positioning Trump administration insiders as early frontrunners in an open primary constrained by term limits. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda's appeal to new voter coalitions, bolstered by a fresh midterm travel push despite polls showing MAHA supporter dissatisfaction. Vance holds as heir apparent but faces narrowing leads after CPAC straw polls where Rubio surged amid donor shifts favoring the latter's hawkish Iran stance and rising prediction market odds. 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal test of primary viability.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$520,092,046
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" has generated $520.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.