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Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru

Market icon

Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru

Carlos Álvarez 29.1%

Keiko Fujimori 22%

Rafael López Aliaga 18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.0%

Polymarket

$6,013,573 Vol.

Carlos Álvarez 29.1%

Keiko Fujimori 22%

Rafael López Aliaga 18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.0%

Polymarket

$6,013,573 Vol.

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Carlos Álvarez

$236,364 Vol.

29%

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Keiko Fujimori

$326,969 Vol.

22%

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Rafael López Aliaga

$835,029 Vol.

18%

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Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$433,396 Vol.

16%

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Ricardo Belmont

$335,484 Vol.

4%

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Alfonso López Chau

$346,021 Vol.

3%

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Jorge Nieto

$807,051 Vol.

3%

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Carlos Espá

$194,302 Vol.

1%

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Marisol Pérez Tello

$264,301 Vol.

1%

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César Acuña

$135,117 Vol.

<1%

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Fernando Olivera

$130,082 Vol.

<1%

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Wolfgang Grozo

$406,418 Vol.

<1%

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Yonhy Lescano

$224,207 Vol.

<1%

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Mesías Guevara

$156,708 Vol.

<1%

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George Forsyth

$154,746 Vol.

<1%

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Vladimir Cerrón

$153,513 Vol.

<1%

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Roberto Chiabra

$86,677 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Valderrama

$177,718 Vol.

<1%

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Mario Vizcarra

$154,142 Vol.

<1%

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José Luna

$118,861 Vol.

<1%

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José Williams

$82,044 Vol.

<1%

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Fiorella Molinelli

$115,911 Vol.

<1%

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Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$141,036 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) With the April 12 first-round vote one week away, recent presidential debates organized by the National Jury of Elections have driven volatile shifts in polls, propelling comedian Carlos Álvarez's outsider candidacy with gains from 9% to 12-18% in Ipsos surveys, particularly in Lima, as he captures anti-establishment sentiment amid widespread disillusionment over corruption and insecurity. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this momentum, pricing Álvarez at 29% implied probability to win the election—outright or via June runoff—ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez (16%), despite Fujimori's narrow poll lead at 19%. Extreme fragmentation among 35 candidates, 17-28% undecided voters, and regional divides sustain the tight contest, with final rallies or endorsements poised to consolidate support for a runoff path.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$6,013,573
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) With the April 12 first-round vote one week away, recent presidential debates organized by the National Jury of Elections have driven volatile shifts in polls, propelling comedian Carlos Álvarez's outsider candidacy with gains from 9% to 12-18% in Ipsos surveys, particularly in Lima, as he captures anti-establishment sentiment amid widespread disillusionment over corruption and insecurity. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this momentum, pricing Álvarez at 29% implied probability to win the election—outright or via June runoff—ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez (16%), despite Fujimori's narrow poll lead at 19%. Extreme fragmentation among 35 candidates, 17-28% undecided voters, and regional divides sustain the tight contest, with final rallies or endorsements poised to consolidate support for a runoff path.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$6,013,573
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Álvarez" at 29%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 29¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru" has generated $6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru" is "Carlos Álvarez" at 29%, meaning the market assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.