With the April 12 first-round vote one week away, recent presidential debates organized by the National Jury of Elections have driven volatile shifts in polls, propelling comedian Carlos Álvarez's outsider candidacy with gains from 9% to 12-18% in Ipsos surveys, particularly in Lima, as he captures anti-establishment sentiment amid widespread disillusionment over corruption and insecurity. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this momentum, pricing Álvarez at 29% implied probability to win the election—outright or via June runoff—ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez (16%), despite Fujimori's narrow poll lead at 19%. Extreme fragmentation among 35 candidates, 17-28% undecided voters, and regional divides sustain the tight contest, with final rallies or endorsements poised to consolidate support for a runoff path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru
Vencedor da eleição presidencial do Peru
Carlos Álvarez 29.1%
Keiko Fujimori 22%
Rafael López Aliaga 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.0%
$6,013,573 Vol.
$6,013,573 Vol.

Carlos Álvarez
29%

Keiko Fujimori
22%

Rafael López Aliaga
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
16%

Ricardo Belmont
4%

Alfonso López Chau
3%

Jorge Nieto
3%

Carlos Espá
1%

Marisol Pérez Tello
1%

César Acuña
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Wolfgang Grozo
<1%

Yonhy Lescano
<1%

Mesías Guevara
<1%

George Forsyth
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

José Luna
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
Carlos Álvarez 29.1%
Keiko Fujimori 22%
Rafael López Aliaga 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.0%
$6,013,573 Vol.
$6,013,573 Vol.

Carlos Álvarez
29%

Keiko Fujimori
22%

Rafael López Aliaga
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
16%

Ricardo Belmont
4%

Alfonso López Chau
3%

Jorge Nieto
3%

Carlos Espá
1%

Marisol Pérez Tello
1%

César Acuña
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Wolfgang Grozo
<1%

Yonhy Lescano
<1%

Mesías Guevara
<1%

George Forsyth
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

José Luna
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the April 12 first-round vote one week away, recent presidential debates organized by the National Jury of Elections have driven volatile shifts in polls, propelling comedian Carlos Álvarez's outsider candidacy with gains from 9% to 12-18% in Ipsos surveys, particularly in Lima, as he captures anti-establishment sentiment amid widespread disillusionment over corruption and insecurity. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this momentum, pricing Álvarez at 29% implied probability to win the election—outright or via June runoff—ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez (16%), despite Fujimori's narrow poll lead at 19%. Extreme fragmentation among 35 candidates, 17-28% undecided voters, and regional divides sustain the tight contest, with final rallies or endorsements poised to consolidate support for a runoff path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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