Trader consensus prices Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's exit before 2027 at 57%, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party leading his Fidesz by double digits ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueled by economic stagnation, high inflation, and public frustration despite recent government handouts. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% amid March 16 U.S. demands for his resignation as a precondition for negotiations, exacerbating blackouts, protests, and economic crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 5.1% reflects coalition instability and a March 31 budget deadline that could trigger snap elections, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% ties to sinking approval ratings and by-election losses; lower odds for others underscore these as primary risks before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPróximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?
Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 5.1%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%
$2,933,209 Vol.
$2,933,209 Vol.
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria
57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel
5%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido
5%
Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão
3%
Putin - Presidente da Rússia
2%
Nenhum antes de 2027
1%
Trump - Presidente dos EUA
1%
Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia
1%
Petro - Presidente da Colômbia
1%
Macron - Presidente da França
1%
Abbas - Presidente da Palestina
1%
Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC
1%
Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha
1%
Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela
1%
Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil
1%
Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França
1%
al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria
1%
Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia
<1%
Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália
<1%
Newsom - Governador da Califórnia
<1%
Merz - Chanceler alemão
<1%
Sheinbaum - Presidente do México
<1%
Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte
<1%
Milei - Presidente da Argentina
<1%
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 5.1%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%
$2,933,209 Vol.
$2,933,209 Vol.
Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria
57%
Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel
5%
Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido
5%
Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão
3%
Putin - Presidente da Rússia
2%
Nenhum antes de 2027
1%
Trump - Presidente dos EUA
1%
Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia
1%
Petro - Presidente da Colômbia
1%
Macron - Presidente da França
1%
Abbas - Presidente da Palestina
1%
Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC
1%
Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha
1%
Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela
1%
Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil
1%
Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França
1%
al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria
1%
Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia
<1%
Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália
<1%
Newsom - Governador da Califórnia
<1%
Merz - Chanceler alemão
<1%
Sheinbaum - Presidente do México
<1%
Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte
<1%
Milei - Presidente da Argentina
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's exit before 2027 at 57%, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party leading his Fidesz by double digits ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueled by economic stagnation, high inflation, and public frustration despite recent government handouts. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% amid March 16 U.S. demands for his resignation as a precondition for negotiations, exacerbating blackouts, protests, and economic crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 5.1% reflects coalition instability and a March 31 budget deadline that could trigger snap elections, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% ties to sinking approval ratings and by-election losses; lower odds for others underscore these as primary risks before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions