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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

Market icon

Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 54%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.3%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,703,136 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 54%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.3%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,703,136 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria

$21,960 Vol.

54%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$16,015 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel

$572,542 Vol.

6%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido

$557,208 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão

$242,951 Vol.

3%

Putin - Presidente da Rússia

$350,584 Vol.

2%

Nenhum antes de 2027

$9,948 Vol.

2%

Petro - Presidente da Colômbia

$12,654 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia

$11,005 Vol.

1%

Trump - Presidente dos EUA

$203,744 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente da França

$67,941 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente da Palestina

$58,110 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC

$39,413 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha

$11,107 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela

$20,309 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia

$75,554 Vol.

1%

Newsom - Governador da Califórnia

$113,161 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França

$40,424 Vol.

1%

Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália

$58,445 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente da Argentina

$34,808 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil

$39,890 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidente do México

$64,315 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria

$27,985 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte

$24,764 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Chanceler alemão

$28,572 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 53.5%, driven by massive protests in Budapest—the largest since 2018—over a child abuse pardon scandal implicating close government allies, prompting opposition calls for snap elections or resignation from figures like Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, amid Cuba's deepening economic collapse, chronic blackouts, food shortages, and sporadic protests met with repression, fueling speculation of leadership transition. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% contends with Gaza war prolongation, fragile coalition dynamics, hostage deal pressures, and corruption trials nearing verdicts. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% reflects recent Labour government stability despite policy challenges, while others face lower risks absent acute catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,703,136
Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 53.5%, driven by massive protests in Budapest—the largest since 2018—over a child abuse pardon scandal implicating close government allies, prompting opposition calls for snap elections or resignation from figures like Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, amid Cuba's deepening economic collapse, chronic blackouts, food shortages, and sporadic protests met with repression, fueling speculation of leadership transition. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% contends with Gaza war prolongation, fragile coalition dynamics, hostage deal pressures, and corruption trials nearing verdicts. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% reflects recent Labour government stability despite policy challenges, while others face lower risks absent acute catalysts.

Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first before 2027 at 53.5%, driven by massive protests in Budapest—the largest since 2018—over a child abuse pardon scandal implicating close government allies, prompting opposition calls for snap elections or resignation from figures like Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, amid Cuba's deepening economic collapse, chronic blackouts, food shortages, and sporadic protests met with repression, fueling speculation of leadership transition. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% contends with Gaza war prolongation, fragile coalition dynamics, hostage deal pressures, and corruption trials nearing verdicts. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's 4.7% reflects recent Labour government stability despite policy challenges, while others face lower risks absent acute catalysts.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 54%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.