US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military and nuclear sites, including recent hits in northeastern Mashhad and the killing of IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, while Iran persists with missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, exemplified by a Houthi attack intercepted over Israel today. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal as "maximalist," issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, as President Trump extended a pause on energy strikes only until April 6 amid claims the campaign is ahead of its 4-6 week timeline. Traders' 95.5% consensus for action through March 31 reflects stalled diplomacy and daily escalations, though a surprise negotiation breakthrough or unilateral de-escalation could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAção militar até 31 de março 96%
31 de março 1.7%
30 de março 1.0%
29 de março <1%
$2,728,376 Vol.
$2,728,376 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 de março
<1%
30 de março
1%
31 de março
2%
Ação militar até 31 de março
96%
Ação militar até 31 de março 96%
31 de março 1.7%
30 de março 1.0%
29 de março <1%
$2,728,376 Vol.
$2,728,376 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 de março
$300,212 Vol.
<1%
30 de março
$287,508 Vol.
1%
31 de março
$413,730 Vol.
2%
Ação militar até 31 de março
$579,038 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military and nuclear sites, including recent hits in northeastern Mashhad and the killing of IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, while Iran persists with missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, exemplified by a Houthi attack intercepted over Israel today. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal as "maximalist," issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, as President Trump extended a pause on energy strikes only until April 6 amid claims the campaign is ahead of its 4-6 week timeline. Traders' 95.5% consensus for action through March 31 reflects stalled diplomacy and daily escalations, though a surprise negotiation breakthrough or unilateral de-escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,728,376Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military and nuclear sites, including recent hits in northeastern Mashhad and the killing of IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, while Iran persists with missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, exemplified by a Houthi attack intercepted over Israel today. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal as "maximalist," issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, as President Trump extended a pause on energy strikes only until April 6 amid claims the campaign is ahead of its 4-6 week timeline. Traders' 95.5% consensus for action through March 31 reflects stalled diplomacy and daily escalations, though a surprise negotiation breakthrough or unilateral de-escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,728,376Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
US and Israeli airstrikes continue unabated against Iranian military and nuclear sites, including recent hits in northeastern Mashhad and the killing of IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, while Iran persists with missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, exemplified by a Houthi attack intercepted over Israel today. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal as "maximalist," issuing a counterproposal demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, as President Trump extended a pause on energy strikes only until April 6 amid claims the campaign is ahead of its 4-6 week timeline. Traders' 95.5% consensus for action through March 31 reflects stalled diplomacy and daily escalations, though a surprise negotiation breakthrough or unilateral de-escalation could shift odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions