Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (96.9% implied probability), driven by the past month's unrelenting US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, defense industries, and energy infrastructure, coupled with daily Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US positions in Saudi Arabia. Recent escalations, including Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and fresh strikes near Tehran today, underscore no de-escalation despite President Trump's extensions of strike pauses to early April amid ongoing negotiations. Absent a sudden ceasefire agreement or diplomatic breakthrough—such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz—the conflict shows no signs of ending before month's close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAção militar até 31 de março 96.9%
31 de março 1.1%
30 de março 1.1%
29 de março <1%
$2,846,432 Vol.
$2,846,432 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 de março
<1%
30 de março
1%
31 de março
1%
Ação militar até 31 de março
97%
Ação militar até 31 de março 96.9%
31 de março 1.1%
30 de março 1.1%
29 de março <1%
$2,846,432 Vol.
$2,846,432 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 de março
$301,927 Vol.
<1%
30 de março
$288,966 Vol.
1%
31 de março
$417,185 Vol.
1%
Ação militar até 31 de março
$690,467 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (96.9% implied probability), driven by the past month's unrelenting US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, defense industries, and energy infrastructure, coupled with daily Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US positions in Saudi Arabia. Recent escalations, including Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and fresh strikes near Tehran today, underscore no de-escalation despite President Trump's extensions of strike pauses to early April amid ongoing negotiations. Absent a sudden ceasefire agreement or diplomatic breakthrough—such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz—the conflict shows no signs of ending before month's close.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,846,432Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (96.9% implied probability), driven by the past month's unrelenting US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, defense industries, and energy infrastructure, coupled with daily Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US positions in Saudi Arabia. Recent escalations, including Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and fresh strikes near Tehran today, underscore no de-escalation despite President Trump's extensions of strike pauses to early April amid ongoing negotiations. Absent a sudden ceasefire agreement or diplomatic breakthrough—such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz—the conflict shows no signs of ending before month's close.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,846,432Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (96.9% implied probability), driven by the past month's unrelenting US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, defense industries, and energy infrastructure, coupled with daily Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US positions in Saudi Arabia. Recent escalations, including Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and fresh strikes near Tehran today, underscore no de-escalation despite President Trump's extensions of strike pauses to early April amid ongoing negotiations. Absent a sudden ceasefire agreement or diplomatic breakthrough—such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz—the conflict shows no signs of ending before month's close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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