Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production facilities and air defenses—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage—mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, with no verified follow-up strikes in the intervening weeks. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a response but has prioritized proxy activities via Hezbollah and Houthis amid a fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon. De-escalation signals, including U.S. warnings against broader conflict and avoidance of Iran's nuclear or oil sites, temper escalation risks. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation threats, potential proxy flare-ups, and U.S. foreign policy transitions post-election for catalysts that could reignite or conclusively end hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$143,791 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
5%
March 30
8%
March 31
11%
15 de abril
33%
30 de abril
67%
31 de maio
56%
30 de junho
66%
$143,791 Vol.
March 26
$19,977 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,565 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$13,681 Vol.
3%
March 29
$19,495 Vol.
5%
March 30
$15,350 Vol.
8%
March 31
$67,190 Vol.
11%
15 de abril
$433 Vol.
33%
30 de abril
$0 Vol.
67%
31 de maio
$148 Vol.
56%
30 de junho
$0 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production facilities and air defenses—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage—mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, with no verified follow-up strikes in the intervening weeks. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a response but has prioritized proxy activities via Hezbollah and Houthis amid a fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon. De-escalation signals, including U.S. warnings against broader conflict and avoidance of Iran's nuclear or oil sites, temper escalation risks. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation threats, potential proxy flare-ups, and U.S. foreign policy transitions post-election for catalysts that could reignite or conclusively end hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$143,791Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production facilities and air defenses—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage—mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, with no verified follow-up strikes in the intervening weeks. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a response but has prioritized proxy activities via Hezbollah and Houthis amid a fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon. De-escalation signals, including U.S. warnings against broader conflict and avoidance of Iran's nuclear or oil sites, temper escalation risks. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation threats, potential proxy flare-ups, and U.S. foreign policy transitions post-election for catalysts that could reignite or conclusively end hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$143,791Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production facilities and air defenses—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage—mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, with no verified follow-up strikes in the intervening weeks. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a response but has prioritized proxy activities via Hezbollah and Houthis amid a fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon. De-escalation signals, including U.S. warnings against broader conflict and avoidance of Iran's nuclear or oil sites, temper escalation risks. Traders monitor Iranian retaliation threats, potential proxy flare-ups, and U.S. foreign policy transitions post-election for catalysts that could reignite or conclusively end hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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