Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Tehran reported minimal damage and four soldier deaths, signaling no immediate further response while prioritizing support for proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in southern Lebanon. No additional strikes on Iranian soil have occurred in the past week, reflecting a de-escalation in direct exchanges despite ongoing regional tensions. Traders monitor potential escalations from Hezbollah rocket fire, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. election outcomes on November 5, which could influence alliance commitments and sanction pressures shaping the trajectory of hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$173,974 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 28
<1%
March 29
2%
March 30
3%
March 31
4%
15 de abril
29%
30 de abril
54%
31 de maio
69%
30 de junho
78%
$173,974 Vol.
March 28
$24,052 Vol.
<1%
March 29
$20,352 Vol.
2%
March 30
$17,017 Vol.
3%
March 31
$76,335 Vol.
4%
15 de abril
$573 Vol.
29%
30 de abril
$20 Vol.
54%
31 de maio
$1,091 Vol.
69%
30 de junho
$5 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Tehran reported minimal damage and four soldier deaths, signaling no immediate further response while prioritizing support for proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in southern Lebanon. No additional strikes on Iranian soil have occurred in the past week, reflecting a de-escalation in direct exchanges despite ongoing regional tensions. Traders monitor potential escalations from Hezbollah rocket fire, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. election outcomes on November 5, which could influence alliance commitments and sanction pressures shaping the trajectory of hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$173,974Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Tehran reported minimal damage and four soldier deaths, signaling no immediate further response while prioritizing support for proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in southern Lebanon. No additional strikes on Iranian soil have occurred in the past week, reflecting a de-escalation in direct exchanges despite ongoing regional tensions. Traders monitor potential escalations from Hezbollah rocket fire, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. election outcomes on November 5, which could influence alliance commitments and sanction pressures shaping the trajectory of hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$173,974Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites, including missile production facilities and air defenses, in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Tehran reported minimal damage and four soldier deaths, signaling no immediate further response while prioritizing support for proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in southern Lebanon. No additional strikes on Iranian soil have occurred in the past week, reflecting a de-escalation in direct exchanges despite ongoing regional tensions. Traders monitor potential escalations from Hezbollah rocket fire, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. election outcomes on November 5, which could influence alliance commitments and sanction pressures shaping the trajectory of hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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