In the Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial primary set for September 1, 2026, trader consensus reflects a razor-thin contest between Michael Minogue at 45.5% and Brian Shortsleeve at 43.5%, with Mike Kennealy trailing at 11.5%, driven by high undecided rates in recent polls and the looming state party convention on April 25. Minogue's campaign-commissioned Pulse Decision Science survey from late February showed him leading primary voters 29%-16% over Shortsleeve amid 47% undecided, boosting his edge despite conflicting internal delegate polls favoring Kennealy. Earlier surveys like Suffolk's November poll had Shortsleeve ahead, underscoring volatility and low name recognition. Separation could come from convention delegate votes—requiring 15% for ballot access—key endorsements, or fresh polling as turnout among conservative primary voters solidifies.