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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Kerala

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Eleições·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Kerala

INC 74%

CPI(M) 26%

BSP <1%

CPI <1%

Polymarket

$184,384 Vol.

INC 74%

CPI(M) 26%

BSP <1%

CPI <1%

Polymarket

$184,384 Vol.

Market icon

INC

$14,934 Vol.

74%

Market icon

CPI(M)

$14,171 Vol.

26%

Market icon

BSP

$9,234 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

CPI

$21,433 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

JD(S)

$14,446 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

RSP

$7,812 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

KEC(M)

$8,278 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

BJP

$45,147 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

NCP

$38,642 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

IUML

$10,288 Vol.

<1%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Recent opinion polls, including Manorama News–C Voter and Lok Poll surveys released in the past week, project the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to win 69–81 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly, positioning INC as the frontrunner amid strong anti-incumbency against the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after a decade in power. Factors driving trader consensus include LDF fatigue from state debt burdens, delayed welfare pensions, unemployment, and agricultural distress, despite LDF retaining advantages in southern districts like Kollam and Pathanamthitta. The BJP-led NDA shows modest vote gains but remains a distant third, unlikely to spoil decisively. With polling set for April 9 and results on May 4, narrow margins underscore the closely contested nature, where minority votes and turnout in northern strongholds like Malappuram could tip the balance.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$184,384
Data de Término
9 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Recent opinion polls, including Manorama News–C Voter and Lok Poll surveys released in the past week, project the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to win 69–81 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly, positioning INC as the frontrunner amid strong anti-incumbency against the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after a decade in power. Factors driving trader consensus include LDF fatigue from state debt burdens, delayed welfare pensions, unemployment, and agricultural distress, despite LDF retaining advantages in southern districts like Kollam and Pathanamthitta. The BJP-led NDA shows modest vote gains but remains a distant third, unlikely to spoil decisively. With polling set for April 9 and results on May 4, narrow margins underscore the closely contested nature, where minority votes and turnout in northern strongholds like Malappuram could tip the balance.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$184,384
Data de Término
9 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Kerala" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "INC" at 74%, followed by "CPI(M)" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Kerala" has generated $184.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Kerala," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Kerala" is "INC" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "CPI(M)" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Kerala" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.