One month into the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28 with initial strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, ongoing airstrikes—including recent Israeli hits on Arak and Yazd facilities—and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia sustain high tensions, shaping trader sentiment toward extended timelines. US Secretary of State stated March 28 the conflict could end in weeks, not months, as President Trump extended the April 6 deadline for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening energy infrastructure strikes absent compliance. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals, countering with demands for halted aggression, security guarantees, reparations, and a broader regional truce, while mining the strait and restricting passage. Israel's vow to escalate underscores unresolved weapons threats, with Hormuz developments as the next key catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO conflito Irã x Israel/EUA termina em...?
O conflito Irã x Israel/EUA termina em...?
$7,977,107 Vol.
May 15, 2026
31 de março
2%
15 de abril
20%
7 de abril
6%
30 de abril
36%
15 de maio
46%
30 de junho
64%
31 de dezembro
83%
$7,977,107 Vol.
31 de março
$4,185,013 Vol.
2%
15 de abril
$898,141 Vol.
20%
7 de abril
$75,681 Vol.
6%
30 de abril
$657,502 Vol.
36%
15 de maio
$1,161,184 Vol.
46%
30 de junho
$800,210 Vol.
64%
31 de dezembro
$199,406 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.One month into the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28 with initial strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, ongoing airstrikes—including recent Israeli hits on Arak and Yazd facilities—and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia sustain high tensions, shaping trader sentiment toward extended timelines. US Secretary of State stated March 28 the conflict could end in weeks, not months, as President Trump extended the April 6 deadline for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening energy infrastructure strikes absent compliance. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals, countering with demands for halted aggression, security guarantees, reparations, and a broader regional truce, while mining the strait and restricting passage. Israel's vow to escalate underscores unresolved weapons threats, with Hormuz developments as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$7,977,107Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.One month into the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28 with initial strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, ongoing airstrikes—including recent Israeli hits on Arak and Yazd facilities—and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia sustain high tensions, shaping trader sentiment toward extended timelines. US Secretary of State stated March 28 the conflict could end in weeks, not months, as President Trump extended the April 6 deadline for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening energy infrastructure strikes absent compliance. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals, countering with demands for halted aggression, security guarantees, reparations, and a broader regional truce, while mining the strait and restricting passage. Israel's vow to escalate underscores unresolved weapons threats, with Hormuz developments as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$7,977,107Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...One month into the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted February 28 with initial strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, ongoing airstrikes—including recent Israeli hits on Arak and Yazd facilities—and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia sustain high tensions, shaping trader sentiment toward extended timelines. US Secretary of State stated March 28 the conflict could end in weeks, not months, as President Trump extended the April 6 deadline for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening energy infrastructure strikes absent compliance. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals, countering with demands for halted aggression, security guarantees, reparations, and a broader regional truce, while mining the strait and restricting passage. Israel's vow to escalate underscores unresolved weapons threats, with Hormuz developments as the next key catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions