Iran has launched repeated drone and missile strikes against Gulf states including Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman since late February 2026, retaliating for US and Israeli attacks on its territory and nuclear sites amid the ongoing conflict. Recent barrages targeted oil refineries like Qatar's Ras Laffan and Saudi Ras Tanura, causing casualties and disruptions, though Gulf air defenses intercepted most projectiles with high success rates. Tehran issued fresh threats last week to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines or hit energy infrastructure if US bases are used for strikes, prompting GCC condemnation and calls for UN-backed action to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday with Iran expressing openness to negotiations, as Gulf leaders weigh restraint against potential self-defense measures amid US troop reinforcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
$135,312 Vol.
31 mar 2026
March 28
100%
March 29
94%
March 30
76%
March 31
16%
$135,312 Vol.
March 28
$42,954 Vol.
100%
March 29
$2,256 Vol.
94%
March 30
$5,433 Vol.
76%
March 31
$7,900 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil between market creation and 11:59 PM on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Iran has launched repeated drone and missile strikes against Gulf states including Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman since late February 2026, retaliating for US and Israeli attacks on its territory and nuclear sites amid the ongoing conflict. Recent barrages targeted oil refineries like Qatar's Ras Laffan and Saudi Ras Tanura, causing casualties and disruptions, though Gulf air defenses intercepted most projectiles with high success rates. Tehran issued fresh threats last week to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines or hit energy infrastructure if US bases are used for strikes, prompting GCC condemnation and calls for UN-backed action to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday with Iran expressing openness to negotiations, as Gulf leaders weigh restraint against potential self-defense measures amid US troop reinforcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$135,312Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Yes
Contestado
Revisão final
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil between market creation and 11:59 PM on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Iran has launched repeated drone and missile strikes against Gulf states including Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman since late February 2026, retaliating for US and Israeli attacks on its territory and nuclear sites amid the ongoing conflict. Recent barrages targeted oil refineries like Qatar's Ras Laffan and Saudi Ras Tanura, causing casualties and disruptions, though Gulf air defenses intercepted most projectiles with high success rates. Tehran issued fresh threats last week to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines or hit energy infrastructure if US bases are used for strikes, prompting GCC condemnation and calls for UN-backed action to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday with Iran expressing openness to negotiations, as Gulf leaders weigh restraint against potential self-defense measures amid US troop reinforcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$135,312Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Yes
Contestado
Revisão final
Iran has launched repeated drone and missile strikes against Gulf states including Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman since late February 2026, retaliating for US and Israeli attacks on its territory and nuclear sites amid the ongoing conflict. Recent barrages targeted oil refineries like Qatar's Ras Laffan and Saudi Ras Tanura, causing casualties and disruptions, though Gulf air defenses intercepted most projectiles with high success rates. Tehran issued fresh threats last week to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines or hit energy infrastructure if US bases are used for strikes, prompting GCC condemnation and calls for UN-backed action to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday with Iran expressing openness to negotiations, as Gulf leaders weigh restraint against potential self-defense measures amid US troop reinforcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions