Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, 2026—which demanded dismantling its nuclear program, halting uranium enrichment, and handing over 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—has anchored trader consensus at low probabilities across near-term outcomes, with only 12% implied for agreement by April 30 and 28% by June 30. Tehran dismissed the terms as excessive, denied ongoing direct negotiations, and countered with its own demands amid US and Israeli strikes escalating regional tensions. February's Oman-mediated indirect talks hinted at Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, but no public commitment emerged, per IAEA reports confirming hidden stockpiles. December 31 leads at 35%, reflecting cautious optimism for year-end diplomacy despite stalled progress and military pressures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
NEW
$33,806 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
13%
June 30
27%
December 31
35%
$33,806 Vol.
April 30
$6,396 Vol.
13%
June 30
$4,963 Vol.
27%
December 31
$22,446 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, 2026—which demanded dismantling its nuclear program, halting uranium enrichment, and handing over 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—has anchored trader consensus at low probabilities across near-term outcomes, with only 12% implied for agreement by April 30 and 28% by June 30. Tehran dismissed the terms as excessive, denied ongoing direct negotiations, and countered with its own demands amid US and Israeli strikes escalating regional tensions. February's Oman-mediated indirect talks hinted at Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, but no public commitment emerged, per IAEA reports confirming hidden stockpiles. December 31 leads at 35%, reflecting cautious optimism for year-end diplomacy despite stalled progress and military pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$33,806Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, 2026—which demanded dismantling its nuclear program, halting uranium enrichment, and handing over 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—has anchored trader consensus at low probabilities across near-term outcomes, with only 12% implied for agreement by April 30 and 28% by June 30. Tehran dismissed the terms as excessive, denied ongoing direct negotiations, and countered with its own demands amid US and Israeli strikes escalating regional tensions. February's Oman-mediated indirect talks hinted at Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, but no public commitment emerged, per IAEA reports confirming hidden stockpiles. December 31 leads at 35%, reflecting cautious optimism for year-end diplomacy despite stalled progress and military pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$33,806Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25, 2026—which demanded dismantling its nuclear program, halting uranium enrichment, and handing over 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—has anchored trader consensus at low probabilities across near-term outcomes, with only 12% implied for agreement by April 30 and 28% by June 30. Tehran dismissed the terms as excessive, denied ongoing direct negotiations, and countered with its own demands amid US and Israeli strikes escalating regional tensions. February's Oman-mediated indirect talks hinted at Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, but no public commitment emerged, per IAEA reports confirming hidden stockpiles. December 31 leads at 35%, reflecting cautious optimism for year-end diplomacy despite stalled progress and military pressures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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