Trader consensus favors 7-9 countries at 20-24%, reflecting four confirmed U.S. military actions in 2026 so far: the January raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, January airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, ongoing counterterrorism operations in Somalia including AFRICOM strikes last week, and Operation Epic Fury's February-March airstrikes on Iranian nuclear, missile, and leadership targets. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty over Iran escalation—proxies like Houthis in Yemen or militias in Iraq could prompt additional strikes—balanced against steady but contained counterterrorism in Africa and the Middle East, plus narco-trafficking interdictions potentially expanding to Mexico or Colombia. The April 6 Strait of Hormuz deadline and U.S. military buildup, including 82nd Airborne in Kuwait, could widen operations or signal de-escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoContra quantos países diferentes os EUA conduzirão uma ação militar em 2026?
Contra quantos países diferentes os EUA conduzirão uma ação militar em 2026?
7 30.2%
8 23.8%
9 15.3%
10 11.8%
$727,686 Vol.
$727,686 Vol.
31 dez 2026
6
11%
7
20%
8
24%
9
15%
10
12%
11
4%
12
2%
13
1%
14
1%
15+
11%
7 30.2%
8 23.8%
9 15.3%
10 11.8%
$727,686 Vol.
$727,686 Vol.
31 dez 2026
6
$417,366 Vol.
11%
7
$3,938 Vol.
20%
8
$11,399 Vol.
24%
9
$8,921 Vol.
15%
10
$10,292 Vol.
12%
11
$8,061 Vol.
4%
12
$10,045 Vol.
2%
13
$7,250 Vol.
1%
14
$41,441 Vol.
1%
15+
$49,132 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7-9 countries at 20-24%, reflecting four confirmed U.S. military actions in 2026 so far: the January raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, January airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, ongoing counterterrorism operations in Somalia including AFRICOM strikes last week, and Operation Epic Fury's February-March airstrikes on Iranian nuclear, missile, and leadership targets. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty over Iran escalation—proxies like Houthis in Yemen or militias in Iraq could prompt additional strikes—balanced against steady but contained counterterrorism in Africa and the Middle East, plus narco-trafficking interdictions potentially expanding to Mexico or Colombia. The April 6 Strait of Hormuz deadline and U.S. military buildup, including 82nd Airborne in Kuwait, could widen operations or signal de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$727,686Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7-9 countries at 20-24%, reflecting four confirmed U.S. military actions in 2026 so far: the January raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, January airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, ongoing counterterrorism operations in Somalia including AFRICOM strikes last week, and Operation Epic Fury's February-March airstrikes on Iranian nuclear, missile, and leadership targets. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty over Iran escalation—proxies like Houthis in Yemen or militias in Iraq could prompt additional strikes—balanced against steady but contained counterterrorism in Africa and the Middle East, plus narco-trafficking interdictions potentially expanding to Mexico or Colombia. The April 6 Strait of Hormuz deadline and U.S. military buildup, including 82nd Airborne in Kuwait, could widen operations or signal de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$727,686Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 7-9 countries at 20-24%, reflecting four confirmed U.S. military actions in 2026 so far: the January raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, January airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, ongoing counterterrorism operations in Somalia including AFRICOM strikes last week, and Operation Epic Fury's February-March airstrikes on Iranian nuclear, missile, and leadership targets. The tight race among these outcomes stems from uncertainty over Iran escalation—proxies like Houthis in Yemen or militias in Iraq could prompt additional strikes—balanced against steady but contained counterterrorism in Africa and the Middle East, plus narco-trafficking interdictions potentially expanding to Mexico or Colombia. The April 6 Strait of Hormuz deadline and U.S. military buildup, including 82nd Airborne in Kuwait, could widen operations or signal de-escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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