Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, project Seoul's highest temperature on March 27 at 12-14°C, fueling the narrow trader consensus with 24% implied probability for 14°C, 23.5% for 13°C, and 18% for 12°C. This clustering stems from a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula moderating early spring warmth, after recent mild days with highs near 15°C, amid weakening East Asian winter monsoon influences. Model spread arises from uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover and southerly wind speeds, which could nudge peaks up or down by 1-2°C. Historical March norms average 11-13°C, aligning with current positioning; traders await KMA's next 12-hourly updates for refinement ahead of resolution based on official Gimpo station readings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Seul em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Seul em 27 de março?
13°C 25%
14°C 24%
12°C 19%
11°C 10.2%
$115,290 Vol.
$115,290 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
8%
11°C
10%
12°C
19%
13°C
25%
14°C
24%
15°C
9%
16°C ou mais
5%
13°C 25%
14°C 24%
12°C 19%
11°C 10.2%
$115,290 Vol.
$115,290 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
8%
11°C
10%
12°C
19%
13°C
25%
14°C
24%
15°C
9%
16°C ou mais
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, project Seoul's highest temperature on March 27 at 12-14°C, fueling the narrow trader consensus with 24% implied probability for 14°C, 23.5% for 13°C, and 18% for 12°C. This clustering stems from a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula moderating early spring warmth, after recent mild days with highs near 15°C, amid weakening East Asian winter monsoon influences. Model spread arises from uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover and southerly wind speeds, which could nudge peaks up or down by 1-2°C. Historical March norms average 11-13°C, aligning with current positioning; traders await KMA's next 12-hourly updates for refinement ahead of resolution based on official Gimpo station readings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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